Royals Ink Greinke

clipped from www.kansascity.com The Royals reached agreement Monday morning with right-handed pitcher Zack Greinke on a four-year contract that buys out his first two seasons of free-agent eligibility.

In an off-season that has featured many less-than spectacular moves, the Royals finally made a big splash.

Financial terms aren't out there yet, but if Greinke continues to improve as he has the last two seasons, any dollar amount will be a steal for what the free agent market is likely to be when he would have been eligible after 2010.

Dayton Moore has just gotten out of Rany's doghouse.

2008/2009 Roster Comparison

Taking the work of Clark Foster at Royals Authority and playing around with it a little bit.

Below is a chart of the 2008 opening day roster and the projected 2009 squad.

2008   ERA/OPS 2009   ERA/OPS (CHONE Proj.)  
Grienke 3.47   Greinke  4.20  -21%
Meche   3.98   Meche    4.21  - 6%
Bale    4.39   Hochevar 4.97  -13%
Banny   5.76   Banny    5.01   13%
Tomko   6.97   Davies   5.26   25%
                                0%
      
Soria   1.60   Soria    3.10  -94%
R. Ram  2.64   Tejeda   3.95  -50%
Nunez   2.98   Bale     4.24  -42%
Mahay   3.48   H. Ram   4.70  -35%
Yabuta  4.78   Gobble   4.73    1%
Peralta 5.98   Farns    4.73   21%
Gobble  8.81   Mahay    4.74   46%
                              -22%
      
Olivo   722   Buck      703   - 3%
Buck    669   Olivo     677     1%
                              - 1%
      
Gordon  783   Butler    800     2%
Grudz   744   Gordon    789     6%
Callas  732   Jacobs    787     8%
Butler  724   Aviles    742     2%
Gload   665   Callaspo  731    10%
German  641   German    720    12%
Pena    398   Bloom     664    67%
                               15%
      
Dejesus 818   Teahen    767   - 6%
Guillen 738   DeJesus   760     3%
Teahen  715   Guillen   745     4%
Gath    583   Crisp     732    26%
                                7%

Yes, it's getting late at the office and it's crazy math time!

A few minor notes:
- Matt Tupman was on the opening day roster due to a suspension for Miguel Olivo last season, so I have replaced him with Joel Peralta to give a better look at the team as it was actually constructed.

- I'm giving Esteban German the nod over Ross Gload as a back-up infielder, because it's my blog and I can do what I want.

- Each group is ranked from best to worst. The 2009 projected numbers come from the CHONE system.

- the percentages are for how much better or worse the position is expected to be this season. For example, the best starter is expected to be 21% WORSE this year than last. The worst outfielder is expected to be 26% BETTER than last year.

- I've also broken down each group so as to draw some wild conclusions based on math that is faulty at best.

A few wild conclusions:
- While the starting pitching may not break exactly as shown (I think Grienke is about to have a break-out season), the overall improvement of 0% seems about right to me. Meche may be in for a small regression, Banny should be a little better, and the 4-5 starters will probably be a mish-mash of talent from triple-A and the free-agent scrap heap all season.

- The relief corps has a chance if Soria and Tejada can keep up their mojo from last season and the damage from the rest of the pen is minimized. This will be Trey Hillman's greatest challenge this season.

- Willie Bloomquist may suck, but he's not the black hole that Tony Pena Jr. was last season. If he's used properly in a back up capacity, his signing should not kill the team, just wound them. Somebody needs to volunteer to hide all the liquor bottles from Callaspo so we can see what he's capable of over a full season.

- Replacing Joey Gathwright with Coco Crisp is an improvement, and not a small one. I will miss the possibility of Joey jumping over two or more players in order to escape a rundown at some point in the season.

Have a great weekend.

Royals Exchange Arbitration Numbers With Four Players

The Royals exchanged arbitration figures with four players today. My quick thoughts on how they should handle each case.

Pitcher Zack Greinke
Asked: $4.4 million
Royals: $3.4 million
Midpoint: $3.9 million

Hey, Zack. How would you like to make $7 million dollars next year? And the year after that? And the year after that? Why don't we just pencil you in for about $35 million over the next five years and all the bloggers out there will sleep a little better tonight?

Outfielder Mark Teahen
Asked: $3.85 million
Royals: $3.05 million
Midpoint: $3.45 million

I'd see if Teahen is willing to negotiate for the midpoint or a little less here. While two of his "home runs" last year were really just doubles that took funny bounces in the outfield, he is a versatile fourth outfielder who might become an important trading chip if he shows a little pop and plays a little third.

First baseman Mike Jacobs
Asked: $3.8 million
Royals: $2.75 million
Midpoint: $3.275 million

The guestimate when the Royals traded for Jacobs was that he would cost them about $3 million dollars this year. I'd hate to start off on the wrong foot by having to put a new player through the arbitration wringer when he was playing for another team last year. If I thought the Royals would just dump Gload, I'd say you offer him a bit more for the next two years to have it settled. As it is, I think you offer a little less than the midpoint and throw in an official MLB rulebook with the section about the strike zone highlighted.

Pitcher Brian Bannister
Asked: $2.025 million
Royals: $1.45 million
Midpoint: $1.7375 million

Bannister has probably the best make up to understand that the arbitration process is only business and nothing personal. Of course, he'll probably represent himself and win. I'd take him to the mat and try to keep that $575,000. If he finds his lucking socks from 2007, he'll be a steal at either price.

Royals Fail to Sign Dunn; Settle on Bloomquist

It seems the Willie Bloomquist deal has sent the Royals blogosphere into a bit of a tizzy.

For the record, I don't like the move, either. Bloomquist is one of those players whose names I have heard, but never had any idea who they were. My initial reaction to the signing went something like this: Willie who? Didn't he play defensive back for the Raiders last season? What's that? Baseball? Infield? Poorly? Oh... okay.

Most of the bad blood directed towards General Manager Dayton Moore has been targeted around the money going against a bunch of average to below average players who, in total, are getting more money than it would take to sign Adam Dunn or another proven slugger like him. I find two faults with this logic.

1.) These signings were made over a period of time, beginning before the effect of the economy on every baseball team not owned by a Steinbrenner was fully understood. When the Royals traded for Mike Jacobs, Adam Dunn wasn't even tossed out as an option, because it was assumed he would cost more than the Royals could spend. I won't blame GMDM for addressing one problem and moving on.

2.) There was more than one problem. Hoarding money for one big time player while hoping you can get replacement-level talent from the minors to fill other holes is problematic. Players get hurt. Underperform. Turn into Andrew Jones in the blink of an eye. Some of Moore's moves won't work out and that's the point. The Royals can't afford to make just one move.

I don't agree that Bloomquist is the guy, but the fact is Tony Pena Jr. sucks, neither Callaspo or German has played a full season at second, and Mike Aviles might see his chariot turn into a pumpkin when the clock hits midnight in Spring Training. Somebody will need to play in the infield and Wee Willie is just a bit of insurance.

The fact is, the Royals have gotten better this offseason, which is all I ever hope for.

Mike Jacobs hit 32 home runs last year. Ross Gload hit 3. Mike Jacobs is better.

Coco Crisp hit 283/344/407 and stole 20 bases. Mark Teahen hit 255/313/402 and stole 4 bases. Coco Crisp is better.

For the Royals to make a big impact in 2009, Greinke and Meche will need to repeat their performances from last year, and the young guys like Butler and Gordon will have to show significant improvement. Even with somebody like Dunn in the lineup, that needs to happen for the Royals to have any chance.

Pitchers and catchers in 30 days. I can't wait.

Royal Awards Announced

clipped from kansascity.royals.mlb.com But there will be other awards for the dinner at 6 p.m. CT on Friday, Jan. 16, at the Sheraton Overland Park Hotel in Overland Park, Kan. Tickets, $75 each or $750 for a table of 10, are available online at Royals.com or by calling 816-504-4040.

The mad Hawaian picks up the George Brett award for best hitter in the organization last year, despite fighting with the likes of Ross Gload for at bats after being called up to the big leagues.

More interesting to me is this nugget about pricing. Apparently, the Royals don't believe in giving bulk discounts, even in a down economy.