The Kansas City Royals did win a game this week, which may not sound like a lot, but means something to their loyal fan base, so I wanted to bring it up. Here's a quick look at what else happened.
The Beginning
Despite Zack Greinke's horrendous start against the Tigers, the Royals starters have a 3.55 ERA three weeks into the season, placing them square in the middle of the major league pack.
Million Dollar Gil and Zack G are leading the way, with five quality starts out of seven so far.
The Middle
Dismal Run support has been a problem. Kansas City is averaging only 3.4 runs a game and has below average numbers across the board. The best hitters have been John Buck and Reggie Sanders, two guys who are only playing in half the games.
The team leads the league in strike outs, while sitting at fourth-to-last in walks.
The End
The relief staff has kept Buddy Bell hooked on Rolaids, sporting a 5.74 ERA and blowing leads late in four games this season.
Joakim Soria has been given the closer's job until Octavio Dotel returns from the disabled list. Soria picked up his first big league win by striking out four batters over the last two innings Thursday against Detroit. On the season, Soria has 11 Ks against 4 walks in 8.3 innings of work.
The Rest
Forbes has released its latest franchise valuations, including this scathing article about David Glass hording money from revenue sharing.
The club is currently valued at $282 Million if you would like to make an offer. My guess is that with some shrewd negotiating, you can get the boys in blue for about $250M if you throw in a new black cloak for the Emperor to wear.
Craig Brown at Royals Authority shows that Mark Teahen has reverted to his old habits of taking the ball the other way. Fond followers of the fellow will recall that once he started pulling the ball more, his power numbers jumped way up last year.
Finally, Mike Sweeney knows his bat is slow, so you can stop making fun of him.
Showing posts with label H.G. Miller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label H.G. Miller. Show all posts
Friday, April 20, 2007
Friday, April 13, 2007
Royals Week in Review - 4/13/07
Holiday travel meant a week off for the Kansas City Royals Week in Review, or KCRWIR, as I’m hoping the kids start calling it. That means this will be a season in review for the team as we prepare for week three of the young MLB season.
The Money Man
A quick recap: One earned run against Boston on opening day. Dayton Moore is a genius! Gil Meche is the greatest steal of the off season! Wait… 6 runs in seven innings against Toronto. Meche sucks! This is the worst contract ever – an albatross that will surely sink the Royals for good. Hold on… five Ks and no runs against Baltimore yesterday. Hmm… maybe Meche is a good pitcher.
All of the praise and panic aside, Meche has a 3.10 ERA with a 3.75/1 strikeout to walk ratio after three starts.
The KC Star is running a great feature now called the Meche Meter.
It basically assigns a dollar value to certain counting stats Meche puts up in each start. It may not be the most sabermetrically sound method of measuring a pitcher, but it’s not a bad way to look at the results a major league starter should be expected to post.
The Saviors
The nicest surprise so far has been the pitching of Zach Greinke. In two starts he has 12 strikeouts and only one walk to go with a 1.38 ERA. Any stats from so early in the season are to be taken with a grain of salt, but young ZG looks good so far.
Of course, the other future star hasn’t had it so great. Alex Gordon, he of the golden locks and the level swing, has managed just two singles and a home run so far, while striking out in a third of his plate appearances.
At the moment, the media vultures seem to be giving AG a chance to find his footing, but don't be surprised if talks of shipping him to Omaha start up if he has a bad weekend. (My money is on Flannigan firing the first shot)
Having watched most of the games so far, Gordon doesn’t look completely overmatched to me. He’s averaging 4.08 pitchers per plate appearance and at least making pitchers work to strike him out.
The Rest
It’s starting to look like those 15 strikeouts in Spring Training are all that Royals fans will get to see from Octavio Dotel for a while.
In sad news for Greinke, both of his maternal grandparents passed away. He expects to be back with the team for his scheduled start this Sunday.
Joakim Soria’s six Ks in six innings have garnered him a shot at the closers role.
Standings
Ten games into the season, the Kansas City Royals are at 3-7, last in the American League Central, 3.5 games back of Detroit and Minnesota.
A look at the sparkline for the season so far (thank you THT) shows that three losses have been by only one run, so there is no reason to sell all of your Jimmy Gobble memorabilia on eBay just yet.
Currently, Baseball Prospectus gives the team a 1.18% chance at making the playoffs based on their current record and projected results.
This is compared to the no chance that most people gave the team at the start of the season. The pitching has been league average so far. It’s time for the offense to step up.
The Money Man
A quick recap: One earned run against Boston on opening day. Dayton Moore is a genius! Gil Meche is the greatest steal of the off season! Wait… 6 runs in seven innings against Toronto. Meche sucks! This is the worst contract ever – an albatross that will surely sink the Royals for good. Hold on… five Ks and no runs against Baltimore yesterday. Hmm… maybe Meche is a good pitcher.
All of the praise and panic aside, Meche has a 3.10 ERA with a 3.75/1 strikeout to walk ratio after three starts.
The KC Star is running a great feature now called the Meche Meter.
It basically assigns a dollar value to certain counting stats Meche puts up in each start. It may not be the most sabermetrically sound method of measuring a pitcher, but it’s not a bad way to look at the results a major league starter should be expected to post.
The Saviors
The nicest surprise so far has been the pitching of Zach Greinke. In two starts he has 12 strikeouts and only one walk to go with a 1.38 ERA. Any stats from so early in the season are to be taken with a grain of salt, but young ZG looks good so far.
Of course, the other future star hasn’t had it so great. Alex Gordon, he of the golden locks and the level swing, has managed just two singles and a home run so far, while striking out in a third of his plate appearances.
At the moment, the media vultures seem to be giving AG a chance to find his footing, but don't be surprised if talks of shipping him to Omaha start up if he has a bad weekend. (My money is on Flannigan firing the first shot)
Having watched most of the games so far, Gordon doesn’t look completely overmatched to me. He’s averaging 4.08 pitchers per plate appearance and at least making pitchers work to strike him out.
The Rest
It’s starting to look like those 15 strikeouts in Spring Training are all that Royals fans will get to see from Octavio Dotel for a while.
In sad news for Greinke, both of his maternal grandparents passed away. He expects to be back with the team for his scheduled start this Sunday.
Joakim Soria’s six Ks in six innings have garnered him a shot at the closers role.
Standings
Ten games into the season, the Kansas City Royals are at 3-7, last in the American League Central, 3.5 games back of Detroit and Minnesota.
A look at the sparkline for the season so far (thank you THT) shows that three losses have been by only one run, so there is no reason to sell all of your Jimmy Gobble memorabilia on eBay just yet.
Currently, Baseball Prospectus gives the team a 1.18% chance at making the playoffs based on their current record and projected results.
This is compared to the no chance that most people gave the team at the start of the season. The pitching has been league average so far. It’s time for the offense to step up.
Monday, April 2, 2007
Suck It, Sox! - BOS 1, KC 7
Look, I don't know what river the Red Sox pulled Manny Ramirez out of before the game, but it didn't matter. Shilling looked terrible and Gil Meche looked like a legitimate major league pitcher today.
Tony Pena, Jr. will probably never hit another triple in the major leagues, but I think the core of the Royals line up can be reasonably expected to have more games like today’s than not.
Grudzielanek, Teahen and Sweeney all had hits in the heart of the order. DeJesus was just off and put up an 0-fer, but John Buck decided to pretend it was September and jacked a home run to the deepest part of Kaufman Stadium.
Defensively, the Royals threw out two Red Sox trying to advance, both by wide margins, which says more about the Red Sox on the base paths than the Royals in the field, but I'll take it.
All in all, a good day for the team and the beleaguered fans.
For one day, the Royals are tied for first in the American League Central, and the literati can shut up about Gil Meche and his millions of dollars.
Tony Pena, Jr. will probably never hit another triple in the major leagues, but I think the core of the Royals line up can be reasonably expected to have more games like today’s than not.
Grudzielanek, Teahen and Sweeney all had hits in the heart of the order. DeJesus was just off and put up an 0-fer, but John Buck decided to pretend it was September and jacked a home run to the deepest part of Kaufman Stadium.
Defensively, the Royals threw out two Red Sox trying to advance, both by wide margins, which says more about the Red Sox on the base paths than the Royals in the field, but I'll take it.
All in all, a good day for the team and the beleaguered fans.
For one day, the Royals are tied for first in the American League Central, and the literati can shut up about Gil Meche and his millions of dollars.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Royals Week in Review - 3/30/07
A look back at the week that was for the Kansas City Royals.
Roster Decisions
The opening day roster has been set. These are the twenty-five men Kansas City will take into battle against the Red Sox on Monday.
Rotation (5): Jorge De La Rosa, Brandon Duckworth, Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, and Odalis Perez
The great news here is that Zach Grienke came out of camp with his head screwed on straight and slotted in as the #3 Starter.
This spring, he’s been striking out over a batter an inning. My prediction is that Zach will be the #1 stopper by the end of the season. If Meche and Perez can keep their ERAs in the fours, then it gives the Royals three legitimate starters (not superstars, mind you, but quality guys).
Of course, anybody with a rudimentary understanding of baseball statistics can tell you that the days De La Rosa and Duckworth take the mound will be long ones for the KC bullpen. How quickly the farm system can develop solid starters to fill in the back of the rotation will dictate how long it takes for the Royals to truly be a competitive team.
Bullpen (7): Ryan Braun, Octavio Dotel, Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta, David Riske, Joakim Soria and Todd Wellemeyer
Dotel got roughed up near the end of Spring Training, but has been throwing bullets since he got to Arizona. I think the days of him putting up a 231 ERA+ are over, but he should be a solid player at the end of games.
The rest of the pen is a mish-mash of average to better-than-okay-but-not-great guys. The wild card is Soria, who has the potential to be the next Johan Santana of Rule 5 picks.
Catcher (2): John Buck and Jason LaRue
Mediocrity took on mediocrity and in the end, it was a battle that neither could win.
The good news is that both backstops have played well enough to be named the starter. Ideally, you’d like to see the younger Buck given a chance to blossom, but if a platoon arrangement keeps both players healthy and productive, it will be hard to complain.
Infield (6): Esteban German, Alex Gordon, Mark Grudzielanek, Tony Peña Jr., Ryan Shealy and Mike Sweeney
While the younger Peña gets his chance to check out the Kansas City MILF scene, perennial underachiever Angel Berroa has finally been sent to AAA.
This quote from Joe Posnanski’s terrific blog pretty much says it all about Berroa. Joe is quoting an anonymous scout:
Outfield (5): Emil Brown, David DeJesus, Ross Gload, Reggie Sanders and Mark Teahen
Speedster Joey Gathright is the loser here, as the Royals have been unable to find any takers for Reggie Sanders, despite a professed willingness to eat most of his contract.
I feel a little bad for Sanders, because I think he can still be a productive major league player if he stays healthy. Unfortunately, he’s just too old for a team like the Royals to justify playing him over younger guys.
A quick story about Sanders from my trip to Surprise this spring:
Mark Teahen was starting the game in centerfield, with Sanders manning right. When somebody for the Diamondbacks hit a towering fly ball to deep center, Sanders ran over and began shouting directions to Teahen.
“BACK BACK BACK… okay, come in a little bit. You got it. You got it!”
Sanders was helpful and encouraging to the very person who was taking his job away. It doesn't say much about his ability to hit a chest-high fastball, but it says a lot about his character.
Postseason Odds
So, what does this group get us? Baseball Prospectus has published their first Postseason Odds report, based on projected stats and playing time of all major league teams. After running the simulations, the Royals Currently have a 3% chance of making the post season.
The End of Spring Training
The Royals will take on the Astros in Houston for something called the Wal-Mart Cup this weekend.
They finished Cactus League play at 11-16, though the team was second in hitting.
Ross Gload led the regulars with a 1.126 OPS. Billy Butler hit 419/514/774 and is set to terrorize pitchers in the Pacific Coast League until the outfield situation clears up.
Ryan Braun pitched his way onto the roster by only giving up 2 runs in 9.2 innings. Zach Grienke had the best ERA among starters at 3.32.
Now, it is time to put all of those numbers away and play some games that really matter. The Royals will take on the Red Sox in Kansas City at 4:10 p.m. EST on Monday, April 2nd.
Play ball!
Roster Decisions
The opening day roster has been set. These are the twenty-five men Kansas City will take into battle against the Red Sox on Monday.
Rotation (5): Jorge De La Rosa, Brandon Duckworth, Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, and Odalis Perez
The great news here is that Zach Grienke came out of camp with his head screwed on straight and slotted in as the #3 Starter.
This spring, he’s been striking out over a batter an inning. My prediction is that Zach will be the #1 stopper by the end of the season. If Meche and Perez can keep their ERAs in the fours, then it gives the Royals three legitimate starters (not superstars, mind you, but quality guys).
Of course, anybody with a rudimentary understanding of baseball statistics can tell you that the days De La Rosa and Duckworth take the mound will be long ones for the KC bullpen. How quickly the farm system can develop solid starters to fill in the back of the rotation will dictate how long it takes for the Royals to truly be a competitive team.
Bullpen (7): Ryan Braun, Octavio Dotel, Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta, David Riske, Joakim Soria and Todd Wellemeyer
Dotel got roughed up near the end of Spring Training, but has been throwing bullets since he got to Arizona. I think the days of him putting up a 231 ERA+ are over, but he should be a solid player at the end of games.
The rest of the pen is a mish-mash of average to better-than-okay-but-not-great guys. The wild card is Soria, who has the potential to be the next Johan Santana of Rule 5 picks.
Catcher (2): John Buck and Jason LaRue
Mediocrity took on mediocrity and in the end, it was a battle that neither could win.
The good news is that both backstops have played well enough to be named the starter. Ideally, you’d like to see the younger Buck given a chance to blossom, but if a platoon arrangement keeps both players healthy and productive, it will be hard to complain.
Infield (6): Esteban German, Alex Gordon, Mark Grudzielanek, Tony Peña Jr., Ryan Shealy and Mike Sweeney
While the younger Peña gets his chance to check out the Kansas City MILF scene, perennial underachiever Angel Berroa has finally been sent to AAA.
This quote from Joe Posnanski’s terrific blog pretty much says it all about Berroa. Joe is quoting an anonymous scout:
“He’s awful. Horrible. I wouldn’t have him as a backup. … He still can’t recognize a slider, and he’s so spooked by that he will just watch fastballs go right down the middle of the plate. He has lost about three steps too.”
Outfield (5): Emil Brown, David DeJesus, Ross Gload, Reggie Sanders and Mark Teahen
Speedster Joey Gathright is the loser here, as the Royals have been unable to find any takers for Reggie Sanders, despite a professed willingness to eat most of his contract.
I feel a little bad for Sanders, because I think he can still be a productive major league player if he stays healthy. Unfortunately, he’s just too old for a team like the Royals to justify playing him over younger guys.
A quick story about Sanders from my trip to Surprise this spring:
Mark Teahen was starting the game in centerfield, with Sanders manning right. When somebody for the Diamondbacks hit a towering fly ball to deep center, Sanders ran over and began shouting directions to Teahen.
“BACK BACK BACK… okay, come in a little bit. You got it. You got it!”
Sanders was helpful and encouraging to the very person who was taking his job away. It doesn't say much about his ability to hit a chest-high fastball, but it says a lot about his character.
Postseason Odds
So, what does this group get us? Baseball Prospectus has published their first Postseason Odds report, based on projected stats and playing time of all major league teams. After running the simulations, the Royals Currently have a 3% chance of making the post season.
The End of Spring Training
The Royals will take on the Astros in Houston for something called the Wal-Mart Cup this weekend.
They finished Cactus League play at 11-16, though the team was second in hitting.
Ross Gload led the regulars with a 1.126 OPS. Billy Butler hit 419/514/774 and is set to terrorize pitchers in the Pacific Coast League until the outfield situation clears up.
Ryan Braun pitched his way onto the roster by only giving up 2 runs in 9.2 innings. Zach Grienke had the best ERA among starters at 3.32.
Now, it is time to put all of those numbers away and play some games that really matter. The Royals will take on the Red Sox in Kansas City at 4:10 p.m. EST on Monday, April 2nd.
Play ball!
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
One More Arm for Omaha
The Kansas City Royals traded minor league catcher Maxim St. Pierre to the Milwaukee Brewers for right-handed pitcher Ben Hendrickson today.
Despite having a kick-ass name, St. Pierre was one of a bevy of backup catchers clogging the Royals minor league system.
Of course, any trade that doesn’t involve the names Emil Brown or Reggie Sanders isn’t likely to make Royals fans happy in the near future, but for now, let’s take a look at what they got.
Ben Hendrickson has been working his way up through the Brewers farm system since 2000. A few brief stints with the big league club in ’04 and last year haven’t gone so well for young Ben, but in the minors, his numbers look solid if unspectacular.
His best talent seems to be avoiding the long ball, giving up only 0.57 home runs per nine innings over his minor-league career. He appeared to wear down over the course of the season last year, his key stats rising with each passing month until September, when every batter he faced looked like Roy Hobbs swinging a magical wood bat.
Hendrickson will start out the season with AAA Omaha, but he looks like another young arm that general manager Dayton Moore is stockpiling for when Jorge De La Rosa continues pitching like he did today.
Despite having a kick-ass name, St. Pierre was one of a bevy of backup catchers clogging the Royals minor league system.
Of course, any trade that doesn’t involve the names Emil Brown or Reggie Sanders isn’t likely to make Royals fans happy in the near future, but for now, let’s take a look at what they got.
Ben Hendrickson has been working his way up through the Brewers farm system since 2000. A few brief stints with the big league club in ’04 and last year haven’t gone so well for young Ben, but in the minors, his numbers look solid if unspectacular.
His best talent seems to be avoiding the long ball, giving up only 0.57 home runs per nine innings over his minor-league career. He appeared to wear down over the course of the season last year, his key stats rising with each passing month until September, when every batter he faced looked like Roy Hobbs swinging a magical wood bat.
Hendrickson will start out the season with AAA Omaha, but he looks like another young arm that general manager Dayton Moore is stockpiling for when Jorge De La Rosa continues pitching like he did today.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Royals Week in Review - 3/23/07
A look back at the week that was for the Kansas City Royals.
Notable Stats
Record: 9-12
Spring training records have little to no correlation for the regular season, but it’s worth noting that the Royals current pace would give them a 69-93 record over 162 games.
OPS:
Butler 1.288 (37 Plate Appearances)
Gload 1.257 (40 PA)
LaRue 1.233 (26 PA)
Billy Butler has been hitting in the last half of most games this spring, which means that production has come against mostly minor-league competition. Still, the boy can hit.
Ross Gload has been getting starts and looks like a lock to keep Justin Huber from getting out of Omaha this year, while Jason LaRue appears to have found his stroke this spring. John Buck is not far behind, but LaRue has proven he can hit in the big leages… Johnny Boy? Not so much.
ERA:
Dotel 0.00 (6 Innings Pitched)
Soria 2.57 (14 IP)
Grienke 3.86 (14 IP)
Assuming he doesn’t wet his pants when a game that means something is on the line, it looks like the Royals may have found a bullpen solution with Dotel.
With Luke Hudson heading to the DL and Brian Bannister sucking in his last two starts, both Zach Grienke and Joakim Soria may begin the season in the starting rotation. Grienke is still giving up the long ball on occasion, but both of the young pitchers are striking out a batter an inning, which is a welcome sight.
Position Battles
Angel Berroa may have finally worn out his welcome with the big club. He has put up a 263/300/342 line this spring, mirroring his career stats, which are terrible.
BREAKING NEWS:The Royals just picked up Toney Pena Jr. from the Atlanta Braves.
Pena is a good fielding shortstop who doesn’t get on base much and doesn’t hit for any power. His best OPS in the minors was 671. Basically, the Royals have just replaced Angel Berroa with Angel Berroa.
At catcher, both John Buck and Jason LaRue have made good cases for themselves at the plate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaRue get the opening day nod over Buck due to his experience, but my guess is they will split time evenly this season.
In other shocking news, Alex Gordon was named the starter at third base, beating out the ghost of George Brett and Phil Hiatt’s flash in the pan.
2007 Predictions
Nearly everybody is predicting the Royals to finish dead last in the American League central with between 92 and 97 losses.
The Hardball Times puts them at 67-95, one game back of Tampa Bay for the worst record in the league.
Arm Chair GM has them at 70-92.
Replacement Level Yankees ran four projection systems through the Diamond Mind simulator to get these results.
CHONE: 64-98
Diamond Mind: 65-97
PECOTA: 66-96
ZIPS: 65-97
This comment puts it bluntly: “[In 4000 simulations, the] Royals are the only team who failed to make the postseason at least once.”
BoDog.com puts the team at 85/1 odds to win the world series.
Place your bets now.
Notable Stats
Record: 9-12
Spring training records have little to no correlation for the regular season, but it’s worth noting that the Royals current pace would give them a 69-93 record over 162 games.
OPS:
Butler 1.288 (37 Plate Appearances)
Gload 1.257 (40 PA)
LaRue 1.233 (26 PA)
Billy Butler has been hitting in the last half of most games this spring, which means that production has come against mostly minor-league competition. Still, the boy can hit.
Ross Gload has been getting starts and looks like a lock to keep Justin Huber from getting out of Omaha this year, while Jason LaRue appears to have found his stroke this spring. John Buck is not far behind, but LaRue has proven he can hit in the big leages… Johnny Boy? Not so much.
ERA:
Dotel 0.00 (6 Innings Pitched)
Soria 2.57 (14 IP)
Grienke 3.86 (14 IP)
Assuming he doesn’t wet his pants when a game that means something is on the line, it looks like the Royals may have found a bullpen solution with Dotel.
With Luke Hudson heading to the DL and Brian Bannister sucking in his last two starts, both Zach Grienke and Joakim Soria may begin the season in the starting rotation. Grienke is still giving up the long ball on occasion, but both of the young pitchers are striking out a batter an inning, which is a welcome sight.
Position Battles
Angel Berroa may have finally worn out his welcome with the big club. He has put up a 263/300/342 line this spring, mirroring his career stats, which are terrible.
BREAKING NEWS:The Royals just picked up Toney Pena Jr. from the Atlanta Braves.
Pena is a good fielding shortstop who doesn’t get on base much and doesn’t hit for any power. His best OPS in the minors was 671. Basically, the Royals have just replaced Angel Berroa with Angel Berroa.
At catcher, both John Buck and Jason LaRue have made good cases for themselves at the plate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaRue get the opening day nod over Buck due to his experience, but my guess is they will split time evenly this season.
In other shocking news, Alex Gordon was named the starter at third base, beating out the ghost of George Brett and Phil Hiatt’s flash in the pan.
2007 Predictions
Nearly everybody is predicting the Royals to finish dead last in the American League central with between 92 and 97 losses.
The Hardball Times puts them at 67-95, one game back of Tampa Bay for the worst record in the league.
Arm Chair GM has them at 70-92.
Replacement Level Yankees ran four projection systems through the Diamond Mind simulator to get these results.
CHONE: 64-98
Diamond Mind: 65-97
PECOTA: 66-96
ZIPS: 65-97
This comment puts it bluntly: “[In 4000 simulations, the] Royals are the only team who failed to make the postseason at least once.”
BoDog.com puts the team at 85/1 odds to win the world series.
Place your bets now.
Friday, March 9, 2007
Pine Tar Videos
This Video Dog post from Salon.com collects a couple of different videos about the famed George Brett "Pine Tar" Incident from 1983.
A few brief comments.
1.) God, I love You Tube.
2.) I'd never seen the entire sequence like this before. It really is funny to watch. Could the two announcers have been any bigger homers for the Yankees?
3.) Rick Dempsey as George Brett. This Rick Dempsey. High-larious.
4.) I feel like a 7-Up.
23 days 'til Opening Day!
A few brief comments.
1.) God, I love You Tube.
2.) I'd never seen the entire sequence like this before. It really is funny to watch. Could the two announcers have been any bigger homers for the Yankees?
3.) Rick Dempsey as George Brett. This Rick Dempsey. High-larious.
4.) I feel like a 7-Up.
23 days 'til Opening Day!
Royals Week in Review - 3/9/07
A look back at the week that was for the Kansas City Royals.
Grudzie Goes Gimp
The Esteban German experiment at Short took a break this week when Mark Grudzielanek went down with torn cartilage in his left knee. German will take over the starting job at second base until the gold glover is ready to return, which according to reports is anytime between next Thursday and 2009.
Leaving defense aside, German projects as a much better choice at second than Grudzielanek. Last season, he was worth three more runs a game, according the classic formula developed by Bill James.
Of course, German was worth 5.5 more runs than Angel Berroa, who is thus far having a decent spring.
Other Injuries
Joe Nelson has injured his labrum again. Similar injuries kept Nelson from becoming a major league regular in the past. As noted here, Nelson faded badly in the second half for Kansas City last year after pitching brilliantly at the start of the season. The competition for bullpen roles is a lot tighter this year, though, so Joe may find himself hanging out in Omaha for a long time if he makes it back from this latest surgery.
Position Battles
Spring statistics are about as useful to us as J. Howard Marshall’s money is to Anna Nicole Smith, but like Smith, they are fun to look at sometimes.
Jason LaRue has shown some nice power in his first healthy Spring Training since knee surgery last year. John Buck has been taking a few walks.
Both players look like locks to make the opening day roster and we may see Buddy Bell use his catchers in tandem like NFL teams are starting to use running backs.
Billy Butler is treating baseballs like Ron Artest treats his women. Unfortunately, he’s doing so at the plate and in the field.
Alex Gordon looks more like the real deal every day.
Neither shortstop has taken a walk this spring, though Berroa has been plunked already.
Craig Biggio has made a pretty good career for himself getting on base via the ol’ HBP. Of course, he also hits for power, fields at an adequate level and has that cool tar stain on his helmet.
Other News
Garth Sears rounds up a who’s who of Royals baseball writers for a discussion at Baseball Think Factory.
Bob Dutton discusses options, and reminds us all that crappy players will always make the team so that they don’t go stink it up for some other franchise.
Grudzie Goes Gimp
The Esteban German experiment at Short took a break this week when Mark Grudzielanek went down with torn cartilage in his left knee. German will take over the starting job at second base until the gold glover is ready to return, which according to reports is anytime between next Thursday and 2009.
Leaving defense aside, German projects as a much better choice at second than Grudzielanek. Last season, he was worth three more runs a game, according the classic formula developed by Bill James.
Of course, German was worth 5.5 more runs than Angel Berroa, who is thus far having a decent spring.
Other Injuries
Joe Nelson has injured his labrum again. Similar injuries kept Nelson from becoming a major league regular in the past. As noted here, Nelson faded badly in the second half for Kansas City last year after pitching brilliantly at the start of the season. The competition for bullpen roles is a lot tighter this year, though, so Joe may find himself hanging out in Omaha for a long time if he makes it back from this latest surgery.
Position Battles
Spring statistics are about as useful to us as J. Howard Marshall’s money is to Anna Nicole Smith, but like Smith, they are fun to look at sometimes.
Player AVG OBP SLG
Buck 600 750 1400
LaRue 400 400 1300
Jason LaRue has shown some nice power in his first healthy Spring Training since knee surgery last year. John Buck has been taking a few walks.
Both players look like locks to make the opening day roster and we may see Buddy Bell use his catchers in tandem like NFL teams are starting to use running backs.
Player AVG OBP SLG
Butler 667 714 1083
Gordon 353 450 588
Billy Butler is treating baseballs like Ron Artest treats his women. Unfortunately, he’s doing so at the plate and in the field.
Alex Gordon looks more like the real deal every day.
Player AVG OBP SLG
Berroa 333 375 533
Blanco 467 467 667
Neither shortstop has taken a walk this spring, though Berroa has been plunked already.
Craig Biggio has made a pretty good career for himself getting on base via the ol’ HBP. Of course, he also hits for power, fields at an adequate level and has that cool tar stain on his helmet.
Other News
Garth Sears rounds up a who’s who of Royals baseball writers for a discussion at Baseball Think Factory.
Bob Dutton discusses options, and reminds us all that crappy players will always make the team so that they don’t go stink it up for some other franchise.
Friday, March 2, 2007
Royals Week in Review - 3/2/07
A look back at the week that was for the Kansas City Royals.
Games!
It’s been five cold months since the Kansas City Royals gave up the first pick in the 2007 draft by winning the last game of the season in Detroit. Finally back on the diamond, the Spring Training schedule started with a loss to the Angels and a win over Texas.
We won’t get into much heavy analysis over a couple of exhibition games; especially since ten players who weren’t even good enough to get profiled in the Spring Training Preview series took the field.
In the first game alone, 18 different players had at bats, and seven pitchers were used.
Of note: Mark Teahen started in right field for the Royals, allowing Alex Gordon to fight for the starting spot at third base in the same way President Bush had to fight his way into Yale.
Top Prospects
Baseball America released their 2007 Top 100 Prospects list on Wednesday. The Royals placed three players on the list, with Alex Gordon landing the number two spot behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, the shiny new Japanese pitcher the Red Sox plunked down $100 million to get in the off season.
Here's how they ranked:
The Rockies and Devil Rays had 8 and 7 players on the list, respectively, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Dayton Moore is talking up the fresh mountain air or the booming real estate market in Florida to Reggie Sanders.
Other News
Jorge De La Rosa has the inside track on the #4 spot in the rotation. His 3.33 ERA in the last month of the season made an impression on manager Buddy Bell.
Mike Sweeney won’t be allowed to visit Tucson this spring. Fans of the Diamondbacks, Rockies and White Sox must be disappointed, but it’s their own fault for always trying to get horsey-rides from the major leaguers who come into town.
Finally, the players are all a bunch of ninnies when it comes to wearing synthetic polyester hats.
Games!
It’s been five cold months since the Kansas City Royals gave up the first pick in the 2007 draft by winning the last game of the season in Detroit. Finally back on the diamond, the Spring Training schedule started with a loss to the Angels and a win over Texas.
We won’t get into much heavy analysis over a couple of exhibition games; especially since ten players who weren’t even good enough to get profiled in the Spring Training Preview series took the field.
In the first game alone, 18 different players had at bats, and seven pitchers were used.
Of note: Mark Teahen started in right field for the Royals, allowing Alex Gordon to fight for the starting spot at third base in the same way President Bush had to fight his way into Yale.
Top Prospects
Baseball America released their 2007 Top 100 Prospects list on Wednesday. The Royals placed three players on the list, with Alex Gordon landing the number two spot behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, the shiny new Japanese pitcher the Red Sox plunked down $100 million to get in the off season.
Here's how they ranked:
2. ALEX GORDON, 3b, Royals
College Player of the Year in 2005, Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 . . . Rookie of the Year in 2007
25 BILLY BUTLER, of, Royals
His bat will have to carry him, but it can--he's a career .344/.417/.564 hitter in pro ball
32 LUKE HOCHEVAR, rhp, Royals
After a celebrated holdout, he improved his stock in indy ball and went first in the '06 draft
The Rockies and Devil Rays had 8 and 7 players on the list, respectively, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Dayton Moore is talking up the fresh mountain air or the booming real estate market in Florida to Reggie Sanders.
Other News
Jorge De La Rosa has the inside track on the #4 spot in the rotation. His 3.33 ERA in the last month of the season made an impression on manager Buddy Bell.
Mike Sweeney won’t be allowed to visit Tucson this spring. Fans of the Diamondbacks, Rockies and White Sox must be disappointed, but it’s their own fault for always trying to get horsey-rides from the major leaguers who come into town.
Finally, the players are all a bunch of ninnies when it comes to wearing synthetic polyester hats.
Friday, February 23, 2007
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Relief Pitchers
Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS - 3B - OF - SP
And here we are. The end of the line for the Kansas City Royals Spring Training Preview series. It’s fitting, then, that today we look at the men who will be tasked with finishing the games.
Last year, the Royals were abysmal in the final innings.
Kansas City blew 31 saves in 2006, more than any other team in baseball.
If the team had been able to convert saves at the league average rate, they would have added another eight wins, and while that still would have left them well out of the playoff chase, it would also have kept every single team preview this year from leading off with the “KC has lost 100 games or more in four of the last five years” stat.
Granted, it’s a moral victory, but one worth achieving.
Since these guys don’t play as many innings in a game (and since there are so damn many of them), they get shorter player profiles.
Octavio Dotel
0-0, 10.80, 2.90
ERA+ 41
Don’t let the stat line scare you. Those numbers were compiled over just ten innings last season. Dotel has only thrown 25.3 innings in the major leagues the last two seasons due to injury (that is the stat that should scare you).
Throwing out last year, Dotel hasn’t had an ERA+ lower than 123 since 2000. If he’s truly mended, he should be a stable force at the end of ball games this year.
Todd Wellemeyer
1-4, 4.14, 1.51
ERA+ 114
Wellemeyer put up a 3.63 ERA in 57 innings after the Royals picked him up off of waivers last year. He’s always had strong strike-out-to-walk ratios in the minors, but that has yet to translate to the major league level.
If he can give away a few less free passes this season, he will have been a steal for Dayton Moore.
Joakim Soria
n/a
After the Royals made Soria the second pick in the Rule V draft this off season, he responded by pitching a perfect game in the Mexican Pacific League.
Solid stats are hard to come by for Soria, who has spent most of his time on the disabled list or pitching in the MPL, but according to this Wikipedia entry, he was 9-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 11 starts last season, striking out over a man an inning.
Jimmy Gobble
4-6, 5.14, 1.48
ERA+ 94
Gobble has always been a finesse pitcher with decent control. Last year, he led the team in strikeouts, a stat that probably says more about the Royals than himself.
He also led the team in wild fluctuations in performance month to month.
Only turning 25 this season, Gobble still has a chance to decide who he wants to be... the ace from August, or the September schmuck.
Joel Peralta
1-3, 4.40, 1.24
ERA+ 110
Peralta spent a long time in the Angels farm system, putting up good K/BB ratios and decent ERAs. Unfortunately for him, the Angels have been loaded with talent in their relief corps, so he was waived and picked up by the Royals.
He was solid if unspectacular with the team last year and is one of many arms that will have a shot at a set up role going into this season.
Ryan Braun
0-1, 6.75, 1.50
ERA+ 72
A high strike out guy, Braun was moving up through the Royals farm system nicely until he lost 2005 to injury. Last season, he put up ERAs of 2.21 in AA and 2.16 in AAA.
The numbers above are from his cup of coffee call up in September last year and are skewed by a particularly bad outing against Detroit.
Ken Ray
1-1, 4.52, 1.54
ERA+ 97
Does that name sound familiar, Royals fans? It’s because Ray pitched 11.3 innings for the team in 1999.
Since that time, he’s bounced around the minors as organizational filler for the Giants, Brewers, White Sox and Braves.
Dayton Moore has brought him to Kansas City because he saw something he liked in Ray while he was with the Atlanta organization.
Leo Nunez
0-0, 4.72, 1.50
ERA+ 102
Nunez was jumped from AA to the big league club in 2005 after showing a few flashes of brilliance for the Wichita Wranglers. Those flashes turned out to be the “in a pan” kind and he struggled with the Royals that year.
Last season, he came up briefly in the summer, posted some promising stats, and spent the rest of the year progressing from AA to AAA, where he posted a 2.13 ERA in 38 innings with Omaha.
Turning 24 this season, Nunez still has a chance to grow into a fine MLB pitcher.
John Bale
n/a
A solid pitcher in the minors for several organizations, Bale could never make his big league opportunities stick and wound up pitching in Japan the past three years.
His walk rates have been declining along with his ERAs while in Japan, so he may have finally figured something out in the Far East.
David Riske
1-2, 3.89, 1.30
ERA+ 120
A solid relief pitcher, Riske was signed in the off season to give the Royals at least two guys in the bullpen with proven major league success (Dotel being the other).
He pitched 3.7 innings of scoreless baseball in the 2001 postseason while with Cleveland, so he’s got way better clutch stats than A-Rod if the team can make it past the regular season.
Joe Nelson
1-1, 4.43, 1.37
ERA+ 109
Another one of those guys who was on track to become an MLB regular until injuries derailed him in 2000 and 2003.
Last year was the first time Nelson saw sufficient action at the major league level. After a strong start to the season (1.11 ERA in his first 22 games), he tired towards the end of the year, posting an ERA of 8.41 in his last 21 appearances.
The feast or famine nature of Nelson’s season pretty much sums up the entire Royals squad going into camp this year. Every player on the roster has had moments in their career in which they looked like a superstar on the verge of breaking out, and most of them have had soul-crushing reality checks.
Over the next month and a half, Buddy Bell and his staff will need to do their best at sorting out the true talents of each player and assembling a team that can produce results, not just hope for them.
And here we are. The end of the line for the Kansas City Royals Spring Training Preview series. It’s fitting, then, that today we look at the men who will be tasked with finishing the games.
Last year, the Royals were abysmal in the final innings.
Rk Tm Save%
1 MIN 80.00
2 LAD 79.37
3 DET 74.19
League 65.88
29 KC 53.03
30 CLE 51.06
Kansas City blew 31 saves in 2006, more than any other team in baseball.
If the team had been able to convert saves at the league average rate, they would have added another eight wins, and while that still would have left them well out of the playoff chase, it would also have kept every single team preview this year from leading off with the “KC has lost 100 games or more in four of the last five years” stat.
Granted, it’s a moral victory, but one worth achieving.
Since these guys don’t play as many innings in a game (and since there are so damn many of them), they get shorter player profiles.
Octavio Dotel
0-0, 10.80, 2.90
ERA+ 41
Don’t let the stat line scare you. Those numbers were compiled over just ten innings last season. Dotel has only thrown 25.3 innings in the major leagues the last two seasons due to injury (that is the stat that should scare you).
Throwing out last year, Dotel hasn’t had an ERA+ lower than 123 since 2000. If he’s truly mended, he should be a stable force at the end of ball games this year.
Todd Wellemeyer
1-4, 4.14, 1.51
ERA+ 114
Wellemeyer put up a 3.63 ERA in 57 innings after the Royals picked him up off of waivers last year. He’s always had strong strike-out-to-walk ratios in the minors, but that has yet to translate to the major league level.
If he can give away a few less free passes this season, he will have been a steal for Dayton Moore.
Joakim Soria
n/a
After the Royals made Soria the second pick in the Rule V draft this off season, he responded by pitching a perfect game in the Mexican Pacific League.
Solid stats are hard to come by for Soria, who has spent most of his time on the disabled list or pitching in the MPL, but according to this Wikipedia entry, he was 9-0 with a 1.77 ERA in 11 starts last season, striking out over a man an inning.
Jimmy Gobble
4-6, 5.14, 1.48
ERA+ 94
Gobble has always been a finesse pitcher with decent control. Last year, he led the team in strikeouts, a stat that probably says more about the Royals than himself.
He also led the team in wild fluctuations in performance month to month.
Mth G ERA
Apr 10 6.75
May 9 3.00
Jun 12 2.25
Jul 5 6.85 (5 starts)
Aug 12 1.64
Sep 12 12.00
Only turning 25 this season, Gobble still has a chance to decide who he wants to be... the ace from August, or the September schmuck.
Joel Peralta
1-3, 4.40, 1.24
ERA+ 110
Peralta spent a long time in the Angels farm system, putting up good K/BB ratios and decent ERAs. Unfortunately for him, the Angels have been loaded with talent in their relief corps, so he was waived and picked up by the Royals.
He was solid if unspectacular with the team last year and is one of many arms that will have a shot at a set up role going into this season.
Ryan Braun
0-1, 6.75, 1.50
ERA+ 72
A high strike out guy, Braun was moving up through the Royals farm system nicely until he lost 2005 to injury. Last season, he put up ERAs of 2.21 in AA and 2.16 in AAA.
The numbers above are from his cup of coffee call up in September last year and are skewed by a particularly bad outing against Detroit.
Ken Ray
1-1, 4.52, 1.54
ERA+ 97
Does that name sound familiar, Royals fans? It’s because Ray pitched 11.3 innings for the team in 1999.
Since that time, he’s bounced around the minors as organizational filler for the Giants, Brewers, White Sox and Braves.
Dayton Moore has brought him to Kansas City because he saw something he liked in Ray while he was with the Atlanta organization.
Leo Nunez
0-0, 4.72, 1.50
ERA+ 102
Nunez was jumped from AA to the big league club in 2005 after showing a few flashes of brilliance for the Wichita Wranglers. Those flashes turned out to be the “in a pan” kind and he struggled with the Royals that year.
Last season, he came up briefly in the summer, posted some promising stats, and spent the rest of the year progressing from AA to AAA, where he posted a 2.13 ERA in 38 innings with Omaha.
Turning 24 this season, Nunez still has a chance to grow into a fine MLB pitcher.
John Bale
n/a
A solid pitcher in the minors for several organizations, Bale could never make his big league opportunities stick and wound up pitching in Japan the past three years.
His walk rates have been declining along with his ERAs while in Japan, so he may have finally figured something out in the Far East.
David Riske
1-2, 3.89, 1.30
ERA+ 120
A solid relief pitcher, Riske was signed in the off season to give the Royals at least two guys in the bullpen with proven major league success (Dotel being the other).
He pitched 3.7 innings of scoreless baseball in the 2001 postseason while with Cleveland, so he’s got way better clutch stats than A-Rod if the team can make it past the regular season.
Joe Nelson
1-1, 4.43, 1.37
ERA+ 109
Another one of those guys who was on track to become an MLB regular until injuries derailed him in 2000 and 2003.
Last year was the first time Nelson saw sufficient action at the major league level. After a strong start to the season (1.11 ERA in his first 22 games), he tired towards the end of the year, posting an ERA of 8.41 in his last 21 appearances.
The feast or famine nature of Nelson’s season pretty much sums up the entire Royals squad going into camp this year. Every player on the roster has had moments in their career in which they looked like a superstar on the verge of breaking out, and most of them have had soul-crushing reality checks.
Over the next month and a half, Buddy Bell and his staff will need to do their best at sorting out the true talents of each player and assembling a team that can produce results, not just hope for them.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Denny Matthews to Enter Hall of Fame
Fantastic news for Kansas City Royals fans today: Denny Matthews has been announced as the winner of the Ford C. Frick Award by the Baseball Hall of Fame.
From the Royals website:
I first started listening to Matthews calling Royals games when I was mowing the lawn as a kid. When I moved to Los Angeles seven years ago, I began listening to the Royals games over the internet and really discovered what a great play by play man he is.
Here are my two favorite Denny moments:
1.) During a Royals-Rangers game, the announcers were discussing Nolan Ryan and his accomplishments as a player. They talked about the strike outs and the no hitters and then Matthews finally chimed in that his favorite moment was when Robin Ventura charged the mound and Ryan put him in a headlock and basically showed him who the boss was.
Matthews doesn't sugar coat things. That's everybody's favorite memory of Nolan Ryan and he didn't pretend otherwise.
2.) During the magical run towards respectability in 2003, the Royals were about to lose to the Seattle Mariners in the second game since coming back from the All Star Break. Mike MacDougal had come in to save a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning, but walked a few batters, gave up a few singles and was facing Ichiro Suzuki with the bases loaded.
Ichiro drove the ball to right field and Matthews started yelling, "Come on wind! Come on wind!"
It was a grand slam and the Royals lost the game.
Matthews is most often criticized for not showing enough emotion during a game. To me, this is his greatest quality. Routine grounders are treated like routine grounders. Likewise with lazy fly balls and singles over the second base bag.
When it really counts, Denny's voice will rise, and he will shout at the wind to help his team win, just like a great flagship announcer should.
Congratulations, Denny. You belong in Cooperstown.
From the Royals website:
Matthews has been with the Royals since the franchise's inception as an American League expansion team in 1969. He initially won the job after beating out more than 250 applicants for the No. 2 announcing position alongside veteran Bud Blattner.
I first started listening to Matthews calling Royals games when I was mowing the lawn as a kid. When I moved to Los Angeles seven years ago, I began listening to the Royals games over the internet and really discovered what a great play by play man he is.
Here are my two favorite Denny moments:
1.) During a Royals-Rangers game, the announcers were discussing Nolan Ryan and his accomplishments as a player. They talked about the strike outs and the no hitters and then Matthews finally chimed in that his favorite moment was when Robin Ventura charged the mound and Ryan put him in a headlock and basically showed him who the boss was.
Matthews doesn't sugar coat things. That's everybody's favorite memory of Nolan Ryan and he didn't pretend otherwise.
2.) During the magical run towards respectability in 2003, the Royals were about to lose to the Seattle Mariners in the second game since coming back from the All Star Break. Mike MacDougal had come in to save a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning, but walked a few batters, gave up a few singles and was facing Ichiro Suzuki with the bases loaded.
Ichiro drove the ball to right field and Matthews started yelling, "Come on wind! Come on wind!"
It was a grand slam and the Royals lost the game.
Matthews is most often criticized for not showing enough emotion during a game. To me, this is his greatest quality. Routine grounders are treated like routine grounders. Likewise with lazy fly balls and singles over the second base bag.
When it really counts, Denny's voice will rise, and he will shout at the wind to help his team win, just like a great flagship announcer should.
Congratulations, Denny. You belong in Cooperstown.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Starting Pitchers
Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS - 3B - OF
The Kansas City Royals have done more than just remodel the pitching staff in the last year. General Manager Dayton Moore has basically demolished the whole thing and started over with his own guys.
Three of the top five starting pitchers on the current depth chart weren’t with the team coming out of camp last year and the other two spent significant time in the minor leagues.
Like with the hitters, the player’s name will link to their career stats page, and I will list the 2006 won-loss record, ERA, WHIP and ERA+ for each.
Gil Meche
11-8/4.48/1.43
ERA+ 97
Meche is going to make a lot of money over the next five years and everybody is going to make fun of the Royals for it.
His career comparables through age 27 include guys like Jason Marquis, Chris Carpenter and Jason Schmidt – sort of a mixed bag of results.
He did see a significant spike in his strikeout rate last season, and Lord knows the Royals could use a few more pitchers who know how to miss bats.
Meche was on his way to becoming a superstar before injuries derailed him in the early part of the century. Since coming back to the big leagues in 2003, he has been consistently almost average.
That kind of performance may be worth $11 million a year in baseball today.
Odalis Perez
6-8/6.20/1.58
ERA+ 76
In 2002, the Atlanta Braves included Perez in a trade with the Dodgers in order to get Gary Sheffield so they could win another division title.
Perez responded by putting up ERA+ of 126, 87 and 127 over the next three years. The Dodgers then signed him to a $24 million contract and he proceeded to stink up the joint, act all disgruntled and get himself traded to the Royals.
Take that, Odalis.
The Royals are only on the hook for about $5 million of Perez’s remaining contract, and he showed signs of life pitching for the team in the second half of last season.
Luke Hudson
7-6/5.12/1.44
ERA+ 95
After a middling career bouncing between the minors and the majors with the Colorado and Cincinnati organizations, Hudson joined the Royals in Spring Training last year and left Arizona with a big league job.
After putting up an 8.74 ERA in the first month of the season, he was sent down to Omaha. I’m guessing he dined on some of the finest steaks America has to offer for the next two months. I’m not really sure.
He did acquit himself nicely when returning to the Royals at the end of June, going 7-3 with a 4.67 ERA to finish out the season.
Jorge de la Rosa
5-6/6.49/1.71
ERA+ 72
De la Rosa was another one of Dayton Moore’s mid season pickups. I think you can learn a lot about a player by looking at who he was traded for in his career.
For example, in a three day period near the end of 2003, Jorge was one in a group of players exchanged by the Red Sox to get Curt Schilling and then the Diamondbacks to get Richie Sexon.
By July 25, 2006, the Royals were able to get him straight up for Tony Graffanino.
He does have a very pretty name, though.
Zach Greinke
1-0/4.26/1.58
ERA+ 114
Excuse me for breaking out the Gnarls Barkley...
“Maybe I’m cra-zay... maybe I’m cra-zay...”
Greinke was a coveted prospect coming out of high school and did well in his first full season of minor league ball. At 20, he cracked the Royals starting rotation and was named the team’s pitcher of the year in 2004.
2005 was a down year and then he left spring training before last season to attend to personal issues. Those personal issues are still a mystery to most, but the Royals seem to have handled the situation well, as Zach is back in camp this year, throwing easy and apparently having a good time.
Mental make up is a hard thing to measure, but Greinke was pegged with Cy Young potential early in his career. If he can stay focused enough to take the mound every fifth day, the Royals may still have a solid, above average starter in the quirky kid from Florida.
The Kansas City Royals have done more than just remodel the pitching staff in the last year. General Manager Dayton Moore has basically demolished the whole thing and started over with his own guys.
Three of the top five starting pitchers on the current depth chart weren’t with the team coming out of camp last year and the other two spent significant time in the minor leagues.
Like with the hitters, the player’s name will link to their career stats page, and I will list the 2006 won-loss record, ERA, WHIP and ERA+ for each.
Gil Meche
11-8/4.48/1.43
ERA+ 97
Meche is going to make a lot of money over the next five years and everybody is going to make fun of the Royals for it.
His career comparables through age 27 include guys like Jason Marquis, Chris Carpenter and Jason Schmidt – sort of a mixed bag of results.
He did see a significant spike in his strikeout rate last season, and Lord knows the Royals could use a few more pitchers who know how to miss bats.
Year K/9
2003 6.28
2004 6.98
2005 5.21
2006 7.52
Meche was on his way to becoming a superstar before injuries derailed him in the early part of the century. Since coming back to the big leagues in 2003, he has been consistently almost average.
That kind of performance may be worth $11 million a year in baseball today.
Odalis Perez
6-8/6.20/1.58
ERA+ 76
In 2002, the Atlanta Braves included Perez in a trade with the Dodgers in order to get Gary Sheffield so they could win another division title.
Perez responded by putting up ERA+ of 126, 87 and 127 over the next three years. The Dodgers then signed him to a $24 million contract and he proceeded to stink up the joint, act all disgruntled and get himself traded to the Royals.
Take that, Odalis.
The Royals are only on the hook for about $5 million of Perez’s remaining contract, and he showed signs of life pitching for the team in the second half of last season.
Luke Hudson
7-6/5.12/1.44
ERA+ 95
After a middling career bouncing between the minors and the majors with the Colorado and Cincinnati organizations, Hudson joined the Royals in Spring Training last year and left Arizona with a big league job.
After putting up an 8.74 ERA in the first month of the season, he was sent down to Omaha. I’m guessing he dined on some of the finest steaks America has to offer for the next two months. I’m not really sure.
He did acquit himself nicely when returning to the Royals at the end of June, going 7-3 with a 4.67 ERA to finish out the season.
Jorge de la Rosa
5-6/6.49/1.71
ERA+ 72
De la Rosa was another one of Dayton Moore’s mid season pickups. I think you can learn a lot about a player by looking at who he was traded for in his career.
For example, in a three day period near the end of 2003, Jorge was one in a group of players exchanged by the Red Sox to get Curt Schilling and then the Diamondbacks to get Richie Sexon.
By July 25, 2006, the Royals were able to get him straight up for Tony Graffanino.
He does have a very pretty name, though.
Zach Greinke
1-0/4.26/1.58
ERA+ 114
Excuse me for breaking out the Gnarls Barkley...
“Maybe I’m cra-zay... maybe I’m cra-zay...”
Greinke was a coveted prospect coming out of high school and did well in his first full season of minor league ball. At 20, he cracked the Royals starting rotation and was named the team’s pitcher of the year in 2004.
2005 was a down year and then he left spring training before last season to attend to personal issues. Those personal issues are still a mystery to most, but the Royals seem to have handled the situation well, as Zach is back in camp this year, throwing easy and apparently having a good time.
Mental make up is a hard thing to measure, but Greinke was pegged with Cy Young potential early in his career. If he can stay focused enough to take the mound every fifth day, the Royals may still have a solid, above average starter in the quirky kid from Florida.
Friday, February 16, 2007
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Outfield
Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS - 3B
How old can an outfield be? The San Francisco Giants trotted out a creaky-kneed trio aged 39, 41 and 41 last season and lost 85 games.
This year, the Kansas City Royals might feature a 39 year old veteran roaming the grass at Kauffman Stadium along side a 25 year old converted third baseman.
A couple of twenty-something speedsters could provide great defense one day, while men who will never get closer to a Gold Glove than Mark Grudzielanek’s locker could be chasing down doubles the next.
Playing time at first and third base will come at a premium this season, with the gentlemen below feeling the squeeze.
David DeJesus
295/364/446
OPS+ 103
Generally speaking, baseball players improve over their first few years in the league, peak at age 27 and slowly decline after that.
Here is how DeJesus has tracked since becoming a full time player in 2004.
Last March, he signed an extension through his age 30 season in 2010 for an average of $2.76 million per year. If he can manage to stay injury free and make the leap in production many expect this season, the Royals will have made a very good deal.
Assuming Buddy Bell doesn’t take any blows to the head this Spring, David will be leading off for the Royals on April 2nd. He’s had some pop in the one hole, hitting six home runs to lead off a game in his career.
Last year, DeJesus was moved to left field when Joey Gathright came over from the Devil Rays.
According the research done by John Walsh at The Hardball Times, DeJesus was one of the best defensive outfielders in both center and left field in 2006.
Emil Brown
287/358/457
OPS+ 104
Emil Brown was not one of the better defensive outfielders in 2006 or any year for that matter.
However, he has managed to carve out a nice career for himself after toiling away in the minors for many years.
If Mark Teahen gets moved to the outfield to make room for third base prospect Alex Gordon, then Brown could find himself in the thick of a mean battle for the remaining corner outfield spot.
Reggie Sanders
246/304/425
OPS+ 81
The other highly-paid option to man right field, Sanders has always been an above average hitter, and a bit of a nomad.
Since leaving Cincinnati in 1998, he has never signed more than a one or two year deal with any team.
While Sanders has managed to put up highly productive seasons despite being on the wrong side of the age curve, the following trend is of concern:
39 year olds who aren’t pitchers don’t have much history contributing at the major league level.
A highly comparable player to Sanders is Ron Gant (who the Royals could have had once).
Gant also bounced around at the end of his career, put up his last useful season at 37 and saw injuries end his career.
Joey Gathright
262/332/328
OPS+ 68
Yes, the batting line is atrocious, but he is fast, or so I’m told whenever I see his name mentioned in any story ever written about him.
Gathwright hit for average and got on base at a respectable clip in the minors (315/391/360 in five seasons), but has yet to see that translate in the bigs. He will never be a power hitter, but if he can start getting on base and stealing at a 75% clip, he will be a valuable fourth outfielder.
Shane Costa
274/304/405
OPS+ 77
Costa beat out Aaron Guiel for the fourth outfielder spot out of spring training last year, and I was none to happy about it.
Costa is another player who put up good but not great numbers in the minors. After being sent down last season, he put up his best line yet going 342/398/593 in 52 games with Omaha, bouncing back and forth with the big club all year.
He’s a Cal State Fullerton Titan, so my wife likes him; though she hates baseball, so I don’t think Shane is gleaning much positive karma from his time in southern California.
Pitcher previews next week.
How old can an outfield be? The San Francisco Giants trotted out a creaky-kneed trio aged 39, 41 and 41 last season and lost 85 games.
This year, the Kansas City Royals might feature a 39 year old veteran roaming the grass at Kauffman Stadium along side a 25 year old converted third baseman.
A couple of twenty-something speedsters could provide great defense one day, while men who will never get closer to a Gold Glove than Mark Grudzielanek’s locker could be chasing down doubles the next.
Playing time at first and third base will come at a premium this season, with the gentlemen below feeling the squeeze.
David DeJesus
295/364/446
OPS+ 103
Generally speaking, baseball players improve over their first few years in the league, peak at age 27 and slowly decline after that.
Here is how DeJesus has tracked since becoming a full time player in 2004.
Year Age Games AVG OBP SLG
2004 24 96 287 360 402
2005 25 122 293 359 445
2006 26 119 295 364 446
Last March, he signed an extension through his age 30 season in 2010 for an average of $2.76 million per year. If he can manage to stay injury free and make the leap in production many expect this season, the Royals will have made a very good deal.
Assuming Buddy Bell doesn’t take any blows to the head this Spring, David will be leading off for the Royals on April 2nd. He’s had some pop in the one hole, hitting six home runs to lead off a game in his career.
Last year, DeJesus was moved to left field when Joey Gathright came over from the Devil Rays.
According the research done by John Walsh at The Hardball Times, DeJesus was one of the best defensive outfielders in both center and left field in 2006.
Emil Brown
287/358/457
OPS+ 104
Emil Brown was not one of the better defensive outfielders in 2006 or any year for that matter.
However, he has managed to carve out a nice career for himself after toiling away in the minors for many years.
If Mark Teahen gets moved to the outfield to make room for third base prospect Alex Gordon, then Brown could find himself in the thick of a mean battle for the remaining corner outfield spot.
Reggie Sanders
246/304/425
OPS+ 81
The other highly-paid option to man right field, Sanders has always been an above average hitter, and a bit of a nomad.
Since leaving Cincinnati in 1998, he has never signed more than a one or two year deal with any team.
While Sanders has managed to put up highly productive seasons despite being on the wrong side of the age curve, the following trend is of concern:
Age Games
34 140
35 130
36 135
37 93
38 88
39 year olds who aren’t pitchers don’t have much history contributing at the major league level.
A highly comparable player to Sanders is Ron Gant (who the Royals could have had once).
Gant also bounced around at the end of his career, put up his last useful season at 37 and saw injuries end his career.
Joey Gathright
262/332/328
OPS+ 68
Yes, the batting line is atrocious, but he is fast, or so I’m told whenever I see his name mentioned in any story ever written about him.
Gathwright hit for average and got on base at a respectable clip in the minors (315/391/360 in five seasons), but has yet to see that translate in the bigs. He will never be a power hitter, but if he can start getting on base and stealing at a 75% clip, he will be a valuable fourth outfielder.
Shane Costa
274/304/405
OPS+ 77
Costa beat out Aaron Guiel for the fourth outfielder spot out of spring training last year, and I was none to happy about it.
Costa is another player who put up good but not great numbers in the minors. After being sent down last season, he put up his best line yet going 342/398/593 in 52 games with Omaha, bouncing back and forth with the big club all year.
He’s a Cal State Fullerton Titan, so my wife likes him; though she hates baseball, so I don’t think Shane is gleaning much positive karma from his time in southern California.
Pitcher previews next week.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - 3B
Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS
A quick look at all of the Hall of Famers who have played for the Kansas City Royals will leave you with two lingering thoughts:
1.) Orlando Cepeda and Harmon Killebrew played for the Royals? Really?
2.) Thank God for George Brett.
With a breakout performer and a sure-fire prospect competing for a spot on the hot corner, this may be the most interesting position battle since Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering went head-to-head over the buffet table in 2005.
Mark Teahen
290/357/517
OPS+ 117
Perhaps the last great thing Allard Baird did as general manager of the Kansas City Royals was send Mark Teahen down to Omaha after his horrid start to the 2006 season.
Faced with fading away or fighting back, Teahen did the latter. He got angry at our little white friends with the red stitching and began thumping whenever one came across the plate.
Dayton Moore brought Teahen back up to the big league team to see if his hot streak would hold, and it did until a labrum tear ended his season in early September.
What remains to be seen is how the shoulder surgery will affect Teahen’s ability to progress this season. Mark is already a candidate to decline – his minor league stats show a lot of patience, but not as much power.
With a log jam in the outfield and golden boy Alex Gordon standing on third base in the minors, Teahen cannot afford to have another April like last year.
Alex Gordon
325/427/588 (AA)
Ahh, the golden child.
Gordon has pretty much raked the ball as far back as the stats go.
Check out his splits while at Wichita last year and you’ll see that the only time he didn’t really produce was in twelve at bats as a first baseman. (Note to the Royals, Alex Gordon is NOT a first baseman)
Most observers assume that Gordon will be the starting third baseman coming out of Spring Training, forcing Mark Teahen to the outfield.
Ideally, the two players will push each other to greatness and force the Royals to trade away some of the excess baggage in the outfield.
Realistically, the 23 year old Gordon will have a few struggles against his first taste of MLB quality competition. How few are up for debate.
A 21 year old George Brett put up a 282/312/363 line in 457 at bats in his first major league season and finished second in the MVP voting at age 23.
Can the chosen one keep up?
A quick look at all of the Hall of Famers who have played for the Kansas City Royals will leave you with two lingering thoughts:
1.) Orlando Cepeda and Harmon Killebrew played for the Royals? Really?
2.) Thank God for George Brett.
With a breakout performer and a sure-fire prospect competing for a spot on the hot corner, this may be the most interesting position battle since Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering went head-to-head over the buffet table in 2005.
Mark Teahen
290/357/517
OPS+ 117
Perhaps the last great thing Allard Baird did as general manager of the Kansas City Royals was send Mark Teahen down to Omaha after his horrid start to the 2006 season.
Team AVG OBP SLG
KC 195 241 351
OMA 380 500 658
KC 313 384 557
Faced with fading away or fighting back, Teahen did the latter. He got angry at our little white friends with the red stitching and began thumping whenever one came across the plate.
Dayton Moore brought Teahen back up to the big league team to see if his hot streak would hold, and it did until a labrum tear ended his season in early September.
What remains to be seen is how the shoulder surgery will affect Teahen’s ability to progress this season. Mark is already a candidate to decline – his minor league stats show a lot of patience, but not as much power.
With a log jam in the outfield and golden boy Alex Gordon standing on third base in the minors, Teahen cannot afford to have another April like last year.
Alex Gordon
325/427/588 (AA)
Ahh, the golden child.
Gordon has pretty much raked the ball as far back as the stats go.
Check out his splits while at Wichita last year and you’ll see that the only time he didn’t really produce was in twelve at bats as a first baseman. (Note to the Royals, Alex Gordon is NOT a first baseman)
Most observers assume that Gordon will be the starting third baseman coming out of Spring Training, forcing Mark Teahen to the outfield.
Ideally, the two players will push each other to greatness and force the Royals to trade away some of the excess baggage in the outfield.
Realistically, the 23 year old Gordon will have a few struggles against his first taste of MLB quality competition. How few are up for debate.
2007 Projections
AVG OBP SLG OPS AB
PECOTA 282 364 511 875 541
ZIPS 275 361 473 834 491
CHONE 273 353 465 818 485
A 21 year old George Brett put up a 282/312/363 line in 457 at bats in his first major league season and finished second in the MVP voting at age 23.
Can the chosen one keep up?
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - 2B/SS
Previous Installments: C / 1B/DH
The Kansas City Royals have had five different leaders in games played at second base in the last five years, and only one guy manning the other side of the bag (forgive me if I pretend the Neifi Perez year never happened.).
Yes, it has been a long time since Frank White was racking up Gold Gloves in the powder blue, but last year saw the Royals get a nice trophy and nearly-adequate production from their second sacker.
Angel Berroa continued to suck wind, but we'll get to him in a second.
Mark Grudzielanek
297/331/409
OPS+ 85
If Grudzielanek doesn’t put up a 295/330/400 line with solid defense this year, then something has probably gone horribly wrong with the space/time continuum and we’ll all have bigger things to worry about than baseball.
A contact hitter, Grudzie doesn’t walk much, strike out much or really do much of anything except put the ball in play.
See these nifty charts from Fan Graphs, if you want the proof.
With a good defensive reputation, the Royals had Grudzielanek move over to shortstop at the end of four games last year. He hasn’t played the position regularly since 2000, but I wonder if he won’t see a little more time over there this season if Angel Berroa can’t get his act together.
Angel Berroa
234/259/333
OPS+ 48
Excuse me for a minute while I shake my head and sigh. Those ugly numbers you see were produced over 500 plate appearances in 132 games last year.
By the end of the season, the Royals were regularly pinch-hitting for Berroa at the end of close games, which was a good idea because his lifetime OPS in the ninth inning is .504. (He hits like Babe Ruth in extra innings, but that is more a product of small sample size than actual clutch talent)
The team is on the hook for another $8.5 million, but it appears Dayton Moore has the flexibility to consider those sunk costs if Berroa doesn’t show improvement early in the season.
Estaban German
326/422/459
OPS+ 122
Aside from getting hit in the face by what most observers considered a routine fly ball, German exceeded every reasonable expectation for the Royals last season.
With a strong history of getting on base in the minors, German led the team with a .422 OBP in 2006.
At 28, German is too old to be considered a prospect anymore, and one would guess that his production will slip after a career year, but he appears to be a solid back up for Grudzilanek.
In my perfect world, German would be moved to the other side of the bag and take over for Angel Berroa at short stop, providing patience and power and probably a few more errors. General Manager Dayton Moore has hinted at this possibility in recent radio interviews.
The Kansas City Royals have had five different leaders in games played at second base in the last five years, and only one guy manning the other side of the bag (forgive me if I pretend the Neifi Perez year never happened.).
Yes, it has been a long time since Frank White was racking up Gold Gloves in the powder blue, but last year saw the Royals get a nice trophy and nearly-adequate production from their second sacker.
Angel Berroa continued to suck wind, but we'll get to him in a second.
Mark Grudzielanek
297/331/409
OPS+ 85
If Grudzielanek doesn’t put up a 295/330/400 line with solid defense this year, then something has probably gone horribly wrong with the space/time continuum and we’ll all have bigger things to worry about than baseball.
A contact hitter, Grudzie doesn’t walk much, strike out much or really do much of anything except put the ball in play.
See these nifty charts from Fan Graphs, if you want the proof.
With a good defensive reputation, the Royals had Grudzielanek move over to shortstop at the end of four games last year. He hasn’t played the position regularly since 2000, but I wonder if he won’t see a little more time over there this season if Angel Berroa can’t get his act together.
Angel Berroa
234/259/333
OPS+ 48
Excuse me for a minute while I shake my head and sigh. Those ugly numbers you see were produced over 500 plate appearances in 132 games last year.
By the end of the season, the Royals were regularly pinch-hitting for Berroa at the end of close games, which was a good idea because his lifetime OPS in the ninth inning is .504. (He hits like Babe Ruth in extra innings, but that is more a product of small sample size than actual clutch talent)
The team is on the hook for another $8.5 million, but it appears Dayton Moore has the flexibility to consider those sunk costs if Berroa doesn’t show improvement early in the season.
Estaban German
326/422/459
OPS+ 122
Aside from getting hit in the face by what most observers considered a routine fly ball, German exceeded every reasonable expectation for the Royals last season.
With a strong history of getting on base in the minors, German led the team with a .422 OBP in 2006.
At 28, German is too old to be considered a prospect anymore, and one would guess that his production will slip after a career year, but he appears to be a solid back up for Grudzilanek.
In my perfect world, German would be moved to the other side of the bag and take over for Angel Berroa at short stop, providing patience and power and probably a few more errors. General Manager Dayton Moore has hinted at this possibility in recent radio interviews.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - 1B/DH
As the march toward daylight savings time continues, we continue our look at the players who will be competing for spots on the Kansas City Royals opening day roster.
Previous profiles: Catchers
Since 2003, the likes of Ken Harvey, Matt Stairs and Doug Mientkiewicz have all spent time chasing down Angel Berroa's errant throws and subbing for Mike Sweeney. Who will be the lucky contenders for that role this year?
Mike Sweeney
258/349/438
OPS+ 97
Any discussion about the Royals 1B/DH situation begins and ends with Mike Sweeney.
When healthy, he has easily been the most productive hitter on the team over the last eight years. Of course, even the casual observer can tell you that Sweeney has hardly been healthy since he became the highest-paid player in team history.
Just to recap: While Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran found riches elsewhere, Sweeney signed what many agreed was a good deal for the Royals in 2002.
His numbers since the signing:
Sweeney will be 33 this season. His offensive numbers should rebound from last year, but he is definitely entering the decline phase of his career. He will be the designated hitter whenever his back is up to it; when it isn’t, the remaining names on this list will be vying for his time in the lineup.
Ryan Shealy
277/333/450
OPS+ 95
Shealy came to the Royals last year as part of a mid-season trade that sent pitchers Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista to Colorado to breathe the mountain air and search for their lost potential.
A strong performer in the Rockies farm system, Shealy was stuck waiting for Todd Helton to catch Mike Sweeney’s back virus so he could have a shot at playing time in the major leagues.
After a short adjustment period, Shealy really started raking for the Royals in the final months of the season.
His last week was marred by illness and he was benched permanently with a case of hives to end the season.
Assuming the mystery hives don't come back with a vengeance, Shealy should have a lock on the first base job coming out of spring training.
Ross Gload
327/354/462
OPS+ 107
Another off season pick up for the Royals, Gload gives the franchise four of the top-eight finishers for Rookie of the Year voting in 2004.
I haven’t decided yet whether this is a good or a bad thing.
In the minors, Gload has always hit for average and power. In two full seasons in the major leagues, he lost a little power, but still managed to keep his batting average up.
As a role-player backing up first base and the outfield, there is really nothing wrong with Gload. However...
Wow! Who’s that wonderful Player X that showed he could handle professional baseball at such a scorching pace? I sure wish my team would give him a shot at a big league job!
Justin Huber
200/273/300
OPS+ 45
By age 22, Justin Huber looked like he was capable of taking Mike Piazza’s place as the best-hitting catcher in all of baseball. (He's Player X, by the way.)
A trade to the Royals, a knee injury and two years later, Huber has become another player lost in the logjam at 1B/DH.
If he can bounce back from a disappointing season with Omaha last year, then the Aussie may become a valuable trading chip later in the season.
As it stands now, he is probably going to be manning first base in Omaha come April. The team has moved Huber from catcher to first base to occasional stints in the outfield since acquiring him in 2004. Most likely, he’ll be called up ahead of Billy Butler in order to save some time on that young man’s service clock.
Previous profiles: Catchers
Since 2003, the likes of Ken Harvey, Matt Stairs and Doug Mientkiewicz have all spent time chasing down Angel Berroa's errant throws and subbing for Mike Sweeney. Who will be the lucky contenders for that role this year?
Mike Sweeney
258/349/438
OPS+ 97
Any discussion about the Royals 1B/DH situation begins and ends with Mike Sweeney.
When healthy, he has easily been the most productive hitter on the team over the last eight years. Of course, even the casual observer can tell you that Sweeney has hardly been healthy since he became the highest-paid player in team history.
Just to recap: While Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran found riches elsewhere, Sweeney signed what many agreed was a good deal for the Royals in 2002.
His numbers since the signing:
Year Games OPS+
2003 108 115
2004 106 123
2005 122 127
2006 60 97
Sweeney will be 33 this season. His offensive numbers should rebound from last year, but he is definitely entering the decline phase of his career. He will be the designated hitter whenever his back is up to it; when it isn’t, the remaining names on this list will be vying for his time in the lineup.
Ryan Shealy
277/333/450
OPS+ 95
Shealy came to the Royals last year as part of a mid-season trade that sent pitchers Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista to Colorado to breathe the mountain air and search for their lost potential.
A strong performer in the Rockies farm system, Shealy was stuck waiting for Todd Helton to catch Mike Sweeney’s back virus so he could have a shot at playing time in the major leagues.
After a short adjustment period, Shealy really started raking for the Royals in the final months of the season.
Dates AVG OBP SLG OPS
8/01–15 255 328 309 637
8/15-31 339 371 525 896
9/01-15 333 393 686 1.079
9/15-24 107 194 143 337
His last week was marred by illness and he was benched permanently with a case of hives to end the season.
Assuming the mystery hives don't come back with a vengeance, Shealy should have a lock on the first base job coming out of spring training.
Ross Gload
327/354/462
OPS+ 107
Another off season pick up for the Royals, Gload gives the franchise four of the top-eight finishers for Rookie of the Year voting in 2004.
I haven’t decided yet whether this is a good or a bad thing.
In the minors, Gload has always hit for average and power. In two full seasons in the major leagues, he lost a little power, but still managed to keep his batting average up.
As a role-player backing up first base and the outfield, there is really nothing wrong with Gload. However...
Gload Player X
Age Lev OPS Lev OPS
19 N/A RK 943
20 N/A A 878
21 A 712 A/AA 830
22 A 865 AA 901
23 A 793 AA/AAA 953
24 AA 827 AAA 838
25 AAA 845
26 AAA 852
27 AAA 873
28 MLB 854
29 AAA 1073
30 MLB 816
Wow! Who’s that wonderful Player X that showed he could handle professional baseball at such a scorching pace? I sure wish my team would give him a shot at a big league job!
Justin Huber
200/273/300
OPS+ 45
By age 22, Justin Huber looked like he was capable of taking Mike Piazza’s place as the best-hitting catcher in all of baseball. (He's Player X, by the way.)
A trade to the Royals, a knee injury and two years later, Huber has become another player lost in the logjam at 1B/DH.
If he can bounce back from a disappointing season with Omaha last year, then the Aussie may become a valuable trading chip later in the season.
As it stands now, he is probably going to be manning first base in Omaha come April. The team has moved Huber from catcher to first base to occasional stints in the outfield since acquiring him in 2004. Most likely, he’ll be called up ahead of Billy Butler in order to save some time on that young man’s service clock.
Monday, February 12, 2007
"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Catchers
Geeks like me who routinely check in with the home team's website can tell you that we are only 3 days, 19 hours and 4 minutes away from the opening of spring training.
There are twenty new faces on the Kansas City Royals forty man roster since the last time pitchers and catchers were asked to report, so I will now continue with one of the grandest traditions of this blog: "Who are These Guys?" 2007!
It's my way of introducing you to the men who will be vying for playing time under the Arizona sun.
Each player name will link to his stats from baseball-reference.com, followed by his 2006 numbers (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging average and OPS+).
Let's start with the men behind the dish.
John Buck
245/306/396
OPS+ 76
Not long ago (2004), Buck finished tied for 8th place in rookie of the year voting, behind fellow teammates David DeJesus (6th) and Zack Greinke (4th). No doubt, his single vote was probably cast by Jeffrey Flannigan.
Buck’s OPS by Year:
Buck’s OPS by Month:
That June number is helped by his .993 OPS in June last year.
Buck’s MO is to start off slow and then figure things out. Unfortunately, aside from the aforementioned June and August of 2004, he has only posted an OPS over .800 in the month of September.
If I were Buddy Bell, I’d hire several “players” to stand around Buck at all times, wearing thermals, complaining about how cold it’s getting and talking about their fantasy football drafts non-stop.
Jason LaRue
194/317/346
OPS+ 65
LaRue was making steady progress as an offensive threat over the course of his career...
OPS+ by year:
... until last year, when pre-season knee surgery kept him out of the opening day lineup and rendered him relatively ineffective.
That’s one scary hole his productivity fell into, but there is hope for a rebound this year.
Here are some of LaRue’s numbers from the last three seasons, courtesy of The Hardball Times:
For reference, that's line drive (LD%) and ground ball percentages (GB%), as well as batting average on balls in play (BA/BIP).
A quick glance at those numbers shows that one of these things is not like the others.
Despite the knee surgery zapping his power, LaRue still hit line drives with the same consistency as previous years. Even a terrible player will have their BA/BIP regress to the mean (the NL average BA/BIP was .301 in ’06), and LaRue was not a terrible player before his knee injury, which could mean a nice bounce back for the man slated to back up Buck.
Paul Phillips
277/284/369
OPS+ 63
In seven minor league seasons, Phillips has put up a marginal 280/326/392 line in 532 games. Seeing action at the major league level almost exclusively during the September call-up period, he has hit 270/279/380 in 50 games.
After missing two entire seasons to injury, Phillips has done well to find himself a home in Omaha and will probably continue to work with the pitchers who aren’t quite ready for prime time yet.
I'll be back with a look at the tall, slow guys standing by first base tomorrow.
There are twenty new faces on the Kansas City Royals forty man roster since the last time pitchers and catchers were asked to report, so I will now continue with one of the grandest traditions of this blog: "Who are These Guys?" 2007!
It's my way of introducing you to the men who will be vying for playing time under the Arizona sun.
Each player name will link to his stats from baseball-reference.com, followed by his 2006 numbers (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging average and OPS+).
Let's start with the men behind the dish.
John Buck
245/306/396
OPS+ 76
Not long ago (2004), Buck finished tied for 8th place in rookie of the year voting, behind fellow teammates David DeJesus (6th) and Zack Greinke (4th). No doubt, his single vote was probably cast by Jeffrey Flannigan.
Buck’s OPS by Year:
2004 704
2005 676
2006 702
Buck’s OPS by Month:
Apr/Mar 553
May 683
June 780
July 552
August 680
Sept/Oct 864
That June number is helped by his .993 OPS in June last year.
Buck’s MO is to start off slow and then figure things out. Unfortunately, aside from the aforementioned June and August of 2004, he has only posted an OPS over .800 in the month of September.
If I were Buddy Bell, I’d hire several “players” to stand around Buck at all times, wearing thermals, complaining about how cold it’s getting and talking about their fantasy football drafts non-stop.
Jason LaRue
194/317/346
OPS+ 65
LaRue was making steady progress as an offensive threat over the course of his career...
OPS+ by year:
1999 77
2000 74
2001 82
2002 85
2003 92
2004 103
2005 105
2006 65
... until last year, when pre-season knee surgery kept him out of the opening day lineup and rendered him relatively ineffective.
That’s one scary hole his productivity fell into, but there is hope for a rebound this year.
Here are some of LaRue’s numbers from the last three seasons, courtesy of The Hardball Times:
AVG OBP SLG LD% GB% BA/BIP
251 334 431 19.7 42.3 .313
260 355 452 22.5 41.6 .325
194 317 346 20.0 43.6 .220
For reference, that's line drive (LD%) and ground ball percentages (GB%), as well as batting average on balls in play (BA/BIP).
A quick glance at those numbers shows that one of these things is not like the others.
Despite the knee surgery zapping his power, LaRue still hit line drives with the same consistency as previous years. Even a terrible player will have their BA/BIP regress to the mean (the NL average BA/BIP was .301 in ’06), and LaRue was not a terrible player before his knee injury, which could mean a nice bounce back for the man slated to back up Buck.
Paul Phillips
277/284/369
OPS+ 63
In seven minor league seasons, Phillips has put up a marginal 280/326/392 line in 532 games. Seeing action at the major league level almost exclusively during the September call-up period, he has hit 270/279/380 in 50 games.
After missing two entire seasons to injury, Phillips has done well to find himself a home in Omaha and will probably continue to work with the pitchers who aren’t quite ready for prime time yet.
I'll be back with a look at the tall, slow guys standing by first base tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Who's on Third? A look at the '07 Royals lineup
Now that Dayton Moore has satisfied fan lust for more minor-league depth at shortstop by signing Alex Gonzalez, the Kansas City Royals offensive unit is pretty much set.
One could reasonably expect the following players to take the field on April 2nd, 2007:
By taking the average on-base and slugging percentages from two of the better freely-available projection systems on the net (ZIPS and CHONE) and plugging them into David Pinto’s very cool lineup analysis tool, we find that this lineup should produce about 4.70 runs a game.
More info on these calculations can be found through Pinto’s site.
Last year, the Royals scored 4.67 runs a game, so the above projection seems reasonable given the modest offensive activity this offseason.
This isn’t to say that Buddy Bell doesn’t have options.
Simply sitting Angel Berroa and plugging Esteban German in at shortstop would boost the production to 4.91 runs a game.
Also, as has been discussed before, there are reinforcements coming from the minors.
If Alex Gordon makes his case this spring and Mark Teahen moves to the outfield, pushing Reggie Sanders to the bench, then the lineup puts up 5.03 runs a game.
In an ideal world, the Royals will put their best foot forward with the following fellows:
This lineup should score 5.11 runs a game.
So, what’s the big difference between 5.11 and 4.70 runs a game?
Pitcher projections are much less accurate, so let’s take a leap of faith and assume that Moore’s many pitching moves this off season have given the Royals staff a chance at mediocrity.
Rather than giving up a league-leading 5.99 runs a game like last year, let’s say the staff regresses to the mean and only allows five runs a game. (The American League average in 2006 was 4.87, so this shouldn’t be too much to ask.)
Now, using the pythagorean method to predict a final record, here is how the team would net out over the course of the season:
Unfortunately, even a team that is capable of winning 83 games needs a lot of luck, some shrewd moves during the season and the National League West as it’s home to have a chance at the playoffs.
However, even sniffing .500 would be a major improvement for the Kansas City Royals in 2007. This team is capable of putting a legitimate major league batting order together, featuring only a few players past their prime, and that hasn’t been the case for quite a few years.
One could reasonably expect the following players to take the field on April 2nd, 2007:
DeJesus CF
Grudz 2B
Teahen 3B
Sweeney DH
Shealy 1B
Brown LF
Sanders RF
Berroa SS
Buck C
By taking the average on-base and slugging percentages from two of the better freely-available projection systems on the net (ZIPS and CHONE) and plugging them into David Pinto’s very cool lineup analysis tool, we find that this lineup should produce about 4.70 runs a game.
More info on these calculations can be found through Pinto’s site.
Last year, the Royals scored 4.67 runs a game, so the above projection seems reasonable given the modest offensive activity this offseason.
This isn’t to say that Buddy Bell doesn’t have options.
Simply sitting Angel Berroa and plugging Esteban German in at shortstop would boost the production to 4.91 runs a game.
Also, as has been discussed before, there are reinforcements coming from the minors.
If Alex Gordon makes his case this spring and Mark Teahen moves to the outfield, pushing Reggie Sanders to the bench, then the lineup puts up 5.03 runs a game.
In an ideal world, the Royals will put their best foot forward with the following fellows:
Player Pos Age
Gordon 3B 23
Sweeney DH 33
Teahen LF 25
Gload RF 31
Shealy 1B 27
DeJesus CF 27
German SS 29
Buck C 26
Grudz 2B 37
This lineup should score 5.11 runs a game.
So, what’s the big difference between 5.11 and 4.70 runs a game?
Pitcher projections are much less accurate, so let’s take a leap of faith and assume that Moore’s many pitching moves this off season have given the Royals staff a chance at mediocrity.
Rather than giving up a league-leading 5.99 runs a game like last year, let’s say the staff regresses to the mean and only allows five runs a game. (The American League average in 2006 was 4.87, so this shouldn’t be too much to ask.)
Now, using the pythagorean method to predict a final record, here is how the team would net out over the course of the season:
R/G RS RA W L
4.70 762 810 76 86
4.91 796 810 80 82
5.03 814 810 81 81
5.11 827 810 83 79
Unfortunately, even a team that is capable of winning 83 games needs a lot of luck, some shrewd moves during the season and the National League West as it’s home to have a chance at the playoffs.
However, even sniffing .500 would be a major improvement for the Kansas City Royals in 2007. This team is capable of putting a legitimate major league batting order together, featuring only a few players past their prime, and that hasn’t been the case for quite a few years.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Royals Make Off-Season's Most Insignificant Trade
The Royals have traded Jeff Keppinger, an infielder that most people have never heard of, to the Cincinnati Reds for a pitcher nobody has ever heard of.
With Mark Grudzielanek locked in as the starting second basemen and Esteban German seemingly able to field grounders without using his face, Keppinger had become a superfluous asset for the team.
Russell Haltiwanger is the prize for GM Dayton Moore. Yet another pitcher added to the stockpile, Rusty will probably be hanging out in Wilmington to start the season, maybe Wichita if he really impresses.
Aside from having a last name with the word “wanger” in it, here’s a quick run down on what else Haltiwanger brings to the organization.
Here are his rate stats since college:
For the uninitiated, the “9” stats are hits, home runs, walks and strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
The two best things about Haltiwanger are his age and his ability to strike out almost a batter an inning. He was able to keep his ERA respectable when moving from college to the pros last year and according to this profile from May, his goal is to some day pitch for the Cincinnati Reds.
I guess he'll have to give up on that dream now.
One final tidbit. Check out this interesting split from his time pitching for Single-A Dayton in ought-six:
With men on base, he walked fewer batters, gave up fewer home runs and clamped down on the overall offensive output of his competition.
It looks like Rusty might be a little clutch.
With Mark Grudzielanek locked in as the starting second basemen and Esteban German seemingly able to field grounders without using his face, Keppinger had become a superfluous asset for the team.
Russell Haltiwanger is the prize for GM Dayton Moore. Yet another pitcher added to the stockpile, Rusty will probably be hanging out in Wilmington to start the season, maybe Wichita if he really impresses.
Aside from having a last name with the word “wanger” in it, here’s a quick run down on what else Haltiwanger brings to the organization.
Here are his rate stats since college:
Year Team Level Age IP ERA H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2004 Newberry NCAA 20 62.1 6.06 9.71 0.14 4.20 8.41 1.55
2005 Newberry NCAA 21 52 3.29 8.83 0.00 4.33 10.21 1.46
2006 Dayton A 22 82.1 4.15 7.87 1.09 4.92 8.53 1.42
2006 Sarasota A+ 22 4 2.25 2.25 2.25 9.00 4.50 1.25
For the uninitiated, the “9” stats are hits, home runs, walks and strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
The two best things about Haltiwanger are his age and his ability to strike out almost a batter an inning. He was able to keep his ERA respectable when moving from college to the pros last year and according to this profile from May, his goal is to some day pitch for the Cincinnati Reds.
I guess he'll have to give up on that dream now.
One final tidbit. Check out this interesting split from his time pitching for Single-A Dayton in ought-six:
IP OPS WHIP W/9 K/9 HR/9
None on 39.7 .729 1.71 7.03 8.39 1.36
Men on 42.7 .650 1.08 2.53 8.44 0.84
With men on base, he walked fewer batters, gave up fewer home runs and clamped down on the overall offensive output of his competition.
It looks like Rusty might be a little clutch.
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
The Royals Unoffensive Off Season
Since the crickets are chirping on Royals coverage while the Chiefs make their “miracle” run into the NFL playoffs, let’s take a moment to examine what General Manager Dayton Moore has done with the offense this off season.
Given that the team finished near the bottom of the league in runs scored last year, you’d think Moore would be stockpiling bats in the same manner he’s been picking up arms.
However, the only additions so far have been 1B/DH Ross Gload and Catcher Jason LaRue.
Of course, Moore did spruce up the lineup a bit during the season, and a look at the OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) month-by-month does show some modest improvement.
Unfortunately, their best month was barely average.
David Cohen over at The Good Phight has posted a list of the stats for each lineup position on every team and here is how the Royals stacked up in 2006:
The overall OPS in 2006 was .765. That means that over half of the Royals lineup was worse than league average, and in the case of the #8 spot, barely better than the pitchers hit in the National League.
Ross Gload and Jason LaRue? Really?
Okay, let’s not panic just yet.
Here is a look at some 2007 projections using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections:
First of all, simply keeping Sweeney healthy and having Mark Teahen not turn into a pumpkin will help the Royals offense tremendously next season.
Hopefully, having Gil Meche make as much money as he does will stave off the pressure that seems to land on Sweeney’s bad back every season.
The jury is still out on Joey Gathwright, but Ryan Shealy looked like a good addition in the second half last year, and Szymborski’s system seems to like Gload’s potential.
However, the biggest reason for Moore’s focus on the pitching staff is that there is real promise coming from the minor leagues.
Alex Gordon, Justin Huber and Billy Butler all project to hit better in the big leagues than almost the entire 2006 lineup.
With all of that potential piling up at triple-A and Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders both on the wrong side of the age curve, I imagine there may be a few more deals before pitchers and catchers report.
Given that the team finished near the bottom of the league in runs scored last year, you’d think Moore would be stockpiling bats in the same manner he’s been picking up arms.
However, the only additions so far have been 1B/DH Ross Gload and Catcher Jason LaRue.
Of course, Moore did spruce up the lineup a bit during the season, and a look at the OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) month-by-month does show some modest improvement.
Apr 681
May 732
Jun 743
Jul 760
Aug 764
Sep 762
Unfortunately, their best month was barely average.
David Cohen over at The Good Phight has posted a list of the stats for each lineup position on every team and here is how the Royals stacked up in 2006:
Rank Pos AVG OBP SLG OPS
47 5 .293 .365 .498 .862
122 3 .280 .355 .425 .779
126 1 .289 .351 .423 .775
128 6 .273 .338 .437 .775
145 2 .290 .342 .416 .758
152 4 .253 .319 .436 .755
218 7 .262 .312 .375 .687
240 9 .258 .309 .346 .655
251 8 .236 .289 .327 .616
The overall OPS in 2006 was .765. That means that over half of the Royals lineup was worse than league average, and in the case of the #8 spot, barely better than the pitchers hit in the National League.
Ross Gload and Jason LaRue? Really?
Okay, let’s not panic just yet.
Here is a look at some 2007 projections using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections:
Name P AVG OBP SLG OPS
Shealy 1b .288 .349 .479 .828
Teahen 3b .277 .349 .461 .810
Sweeney dh .275 .338 .470 .808
DeJesus cf .287 .355 .431 .786
Brown lf .281 .343 .438 .781
Sanders rf .252 .312 .438 .750
Buck c .251 .307 .432 .739
Grudz 2b .288 .327 .382 .709
Berroa ss .252 .288 .365 .653
BENCH
Gload dh .302 .350 .467 .817
German 2b .290 .359 .386 .745
LaRue c .234 .331 .411 .742
Gthrght cf .269 .335 .330 .665
MINORS
Gordon 3b .275 .361 .473 .834
Huber 1b .272 .337 .456 .793
Butler lf .292 .339 .447 .786
First of all, simply keeping Sweeney healthy and having Mark Teahen not turn into a pumpkin will help the Royals offense tremendously next season.
Hopefully, having Gil Meche make as much money as he does will stave off the pressure that seems to land on Sweeney’s bad back every season.
The jury is still out on Joey Gathwright, but Ryan Shealy looked like a good addition in the second half last year, and Szymborski’s system seems to like Gload’s potential.
However, the biggest reason for Moore’s focus on the pitching staff is that there is real promise coming from the minor leagues.
Alex Gordon, Justin Huber and Billy Butler all project to hit better in the big leagues than almost the entire 2006 lineup.
With all of that potential piling up at triple-A and Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders both on the wrong side of the age curve, I imagine there may be a few more deals before pitchers and catchers report.
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