Friday, December 15, 2006

The Pitching Picture

Wow. Fifty-five mil for Gil?

I don’t know if Big Money Meche is going to lead us to the promised land in this year, or the next, but I do feel like the offense will continue to improve and any, ANY move towards mediocrity by the pitching staff will be a step in the right direction.

Here’s a quick look at where we were and where we might be going.

2006           2007
Player ERA+ Player *ERA+
Hudson 95 Greinke 101
DeLaRosa 93 Ban'ster 101
Elarton 91 Meche 97
O. Perez 86 Hudson 93
Redman 85 O. Perez 86
Elvys 75 DeLaRosa 74

2006          2007
Player ERA+ Player *ERA+
Peralta 110 W’meyer 110
Dessens 108 Peralta 110
Gobble 94 Nelson 93
Burgos 88 Bale 92
Sisco 68 Ray 92

*Please note: The ’07 ERA+ number is simply the player’s 2006 ERA+ divided by their career ERA+. ERA+ is a quick-read stat that compares a pitcher’s ERA to the league average. Above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.

My projection is not grounded in any proven sabermetric theory, just something I could do quickly while whiling away the hours at work.

Of course, the staff is not set in stone, and there will be a variety of other pitchers who grace the mound at Kaufman stadium next year, most notably Octavio Dotel, who sports a career ERA+ of 121 from his pre-injury days.

If someone like Andy Sisco can find his form again, or Rule 5 pickup Joakim Soria can build on his stellar showing in winter ball (I make the bold prediction that he will NOT throw a perfect game for the Royals in 2007), then there really is hope for a shot at winning some of the closer games next year.

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