Royals Fail to Sign Dunn; Settle on Bloomquist

It seems the Willie Bloomquist deal has sent the Royals blogosphere into a bit of a tizzy.

For the record, I don't like the move, either. Bloomquist is one of those players whose names I have heard, but never had any idea who they were. My initial reaction to the signing went something like this: Willie who? Didn't he play defensive back for the Raiders last season? What's that? Baseball? Infield? Poorly? Oh... okay.

Most of the bad blood directed towards General Manager Dayton Moore has been targeted around the money going against a bunch of average to below average players who, in total, are getting more money than it would take to sign Adam Dunn or another proven slugger like him. I find two faults with this logic.

1.) These signings were made over a period of time, beginning before the effect of the economy on every baseball team not owned by a Steinbrenner was fully understood. When the Royals traded for Mike Jacobs, Adam Dunn wasn't even tossed out as an option, because it was assumed he would cost more than the Royals could spend. I won't blame GMDM for addressing one problem and moving on.

2.) There was more than one problem. Hoarding money for one big time player while hoping you can get replacement-level talent from the minors to fill other holes is problematic. Players get hurt. Underperform. Turn into Andrew Jones in the blink of an eye. Some of Moore's moves won't work out and that's the point. The Royals can't afford to make just one move.

I don't agree that Bloomquist is the guy, but the fact is Tony Pena Jr. sucks, neither Callaspo or German has played a full season at second, and Mike Aviles might see his chariot turn into a pumpkin when the clock hits midnight in Spring Training. Somebody will need to play in the infield and Wee Willie is just a bit of insurance.

The fact is, the Royals have gotten better this offseason, which is all I ever hope for.

Mike Jacobs hit 32 home runs last year. Ross Gload hit 3. Mike Jacobs is better.

Coco Crisp hit 283/344/407 and stole 20 bases. Mark Teahen hit 255/313/402 and stole 4 bases. Coco Crisp is better.

For the Royals to make a big impact in 2009, Greinke and Meche will need to repeat their performances from last year, and the young guys like Butler and Gordon will have to show significant improvement. Even with somebody like Dunn in the lineup, that needs to happen for the Royals to have any chance.

Pitchers and catchers in 30 days. I can't wait.

Breaking down Sisco for Gload

So, all that stuff I said about Sisco returning to form. Yeah, um, forget about that.

Since it's getting to be old news already, I'll just throw my two cents in here.

First, a look at the pertinent stats:

Andy Sisco
Year Games ERA+
2005  67   139
2006  65    68

Ross Gload
Year Games OPS+
2004 110   115
2006  77   107

Gload put up a 364/416/657 line at AAA in '05.

Oh, and then there's this: Sisco is going to be 24 years old in 2007, whereas our boy Ross will be 31.

So, the Royals trade a young power pitcher with proven upside (albeit with a bit of an attitude problem) for a position player who has proven to be slightly above average playing the field at 1B/OF, where the team is already overloaded.

Not to bead a dead horse, but the Royals already HAD this guy:

Aaron Guiel
Year Games OPS+
2005 33    114
2006 63    102

The general consensus on the web seems to be that GM Dayton Moore is sending a message by shuttling off underachievers like Runelvys and Sisco, and generally I agree with the philosophy. However, Ross Gload, while of comparative value to Sisco from a numbers standpoint, is older and unnecessary.

I'm trying to hold off on judging the off season activity until we get closer to Spring Training, as it looks like Moore has no intentions of slowing down.

For all we know, Reggie Sanders, Emil Brown and Justin Huber will all be on other teams by the time pitchers and catchers report to the desert. However, this trade certainly looks like a bad one to me at the moment.

With Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Justin Huber all performing well in the minors, I have to believe the focus should be on stockpiling as many live arms as possible, rather than sending them to rival teams.

The Pitching Picture

Wow. Fifty-five mil for Gil?

I don’t know if Big Money Meche is going to lead us to the promised land in this year, or the next, but I do feel like the offense will continue to improve and any, ANY move towards mediocrity by the pitching staff will be a step in the right direction.

Here’s a quick look at where we were and where we might be going.

Starters

2006           2007
Player   ERA+  Player   *ERA+
Hudson   95    Greinke  101
DeLaRosa 93    Ban'ster 101
Elarton  91    Meche    97
O. Perez 86    Hudson   93
Redman   85    O. Perez 86
Elvys    75    DeLaRosa 74

Relievers

2006          2007
Player  ERA+  Player  *ERA+
Peralta 110   W’meyer 110
Dessens 108   Peralta 110
Gobble  94    Nelson  93
Burgos  88    Bale    92
Sisco   68    Ray     92

*Please note: The ’07 ERA+ number is simply the player’s 2006 ERA+ divided by their career ERA+. ERA+ is a quick-read stat that compares a pitcher’s ERA to the league average. Above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.

My projection is not grounded in any proven sabermetric theory, just something I could do quickly while whiling away the hours at work.

Of course, the staff is not set in stone, and there will be a variety of other pitchers who grace the mound at Kaufman stadium next year, most notably Octavio Dotel, who sports a career ERA+ of 121 from his pre-injury days.

If someone like Andy Sisco can find his form again, or Rule 5 pickup Joakim Soria can build on his stellar showing in winter ball (I make the bold prediction that he will NOT throw a perfect game for the Royals in 2007), then there really is hope for a shot at winning some of the closer games next year.