Thursday, July 5, 2012

Halfway Home (or, How Would the Greeks Celebrate the All Star Break)

Tonight's game against the Toronto Blue Jays will mark the official halfway point in the season for the Royals. Here are some charts that don't mean much of anything, but I had fun making them.

First up is a look at the Royals actual record compared to their Pythagorean record (using Baseball-Reference's 1.83 methodology).

The very obvious takeaway here is that it takes a while for theory and reality to meet when you blow a 12-game hole in your record to start the season. 

What's more interesting to me is how the Royals have been outperforming their run differential as of late, and despite the long losing streak to start the year, are basically right where they should be.

This next chart is simply a look at the Royals actual and Pythag record based on a rolling 30 accumulation.

Here, it is even more obvious how they have played above their run differential for several stretches this season.

More than that, though, it shows that this team has been more than competitive for a large swath of the schedule, and if nothing else, fought back quite admirably from the dozen-game-drubbing their record took in early April.

Random end point fun shows us that for a one-month stretch ending on June 29, the Kansas City Royals were playing at a 109-win pace.

A hot streak in the second half and a few key callups could make this team very fun to watch after the All Star Break.

A few less Tommy John surgeries would help, as well.

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